Dan and Dave Weigel seem to have read too much into my post on those New Hampshire poll results, but that is partly my fault when I put the word doom in the title.  I don’t know whether Wright has fatally wounded Obama, and after many repeated, spectacular wrong calls in this election (remember the famous Thompson v. Clinton showdown?) I really try to stay out of the prediction business these days.  It strikes me as significant that there has been a 23-point swing against Obama in two months in a state that is considered to be Democratic-leaning.  I didn’t mean to say by this that Obama is necessarily “finished,” but New Hampshire does offer a case where Obama should have most of the advantages and has lost ground to someone who represents the continuation of all the things that most people in New Hampshire oppose.  If we want to see how a McCain victory could happen, New Hampshire’s polling movement may be instructive. 

Then again, I am probably more easily persuaded than most that Obama has suffered irreparable damage, since I already assumed him to be a weak general election candidate.  Back at the height of the enthusiasm for Obama, I brazenly declared that the Democrats had marched themselves off a cliff, but at the time I was thinking of Obama’s problems mostly in terms of the more conventional baggage of being inexperienced and far to the left.  A week before that, I had already made what was probably one of the first Obama-as-McGovern ’72 arguments, and I was assuming this to be the case well before Wright exploded onto the national scene, to say nothing of the San Francisco “cling” remarks. 

All that said, there is no way to know whether campaigns are finished in this cycle–I assumed McCain’s was finished months ago, and that was very wrong.  After Obama had won all of the contests after February 5, everyone assumed that Clinton was on the verge of elimination, but she keeps going.  Three months ago, people were talking as if Obama could transmute lead into gold, and perhaps in another three months things will have changed around completely and the structual advantages for the Democrats will take over and give them a huge lead.  One reason I am skeptical of this is that challengers, which has typically meant Democratic candidates in the last 30 years, usually poll strongly early on and then keep losing ground.  There is always a convention bounce, but the challenger typically suffers an overall loss of support as the campaign grinds on.  The ’08 cycle has not reliably followed previous patterns because of the changes in the primary calendar and the sheer length of the campaign, so none of that may matter, but we have no reason to think that the Democratic nominee will substantially gain lasting support in the remaining months of the campaign.

The reason that voters under the age of 30 are now significantly more Democratic than older voters is that they are much less likely to be married, white, and Christian. ~Alan Abramowitz

Steve Sailer’s article in February identified the strong correlations between marriage and children, and the affordability of both, and support for Republican candidates.  This would seem to confirm that finding in a dramatic way, and it reveals much more profound long-term problems for Republicans and cultural conservatives in the coming decades.  It shows that the collapse of party identification with the Republicans in my age group is the result of significant structural changes in the rising generation.  Bush’s misrule and the war in Iraq are likely compounding factors, reinforcing the existing tendency of unmarried, non-Christian and nonwhite voters to support the Democrats, but probably even if these had never happened the pro-Democratic leaning of most 18-29 year olds today would be roughly what it is.  The deeper problem for the GOP is that there is not really much that it can do about this.  Meanwhile, this trend reveals the bankruptcy of trying to fight the culture war primarily through political means.  Not only has little concrete progress been made, but while the GOP has been biding its time and using cultural conservatives to win elections the next generation has become a naturally pro-Democratic constituency for the reasons Sailer has outlined.  Furthermore, even if the rising generation ends up marrying and even becoming regular church-goers in the future, voting patterns tend to be set early in life, which means that this generation is not going to come back to the GOP later.  Beyond that, as marriage is generally being put off longer and longer for professional or other reasons, this pattern will keep recurring with every new cohort of 18-29 year olds.  Cultural change has devoured the future of the Republican Party as it exists today.  This is somewhat fitting, since it never saw fit to do much more than strike poses about culture change in any case.

Esor im yarin tesa baghchi mechn man galov,

Today I saw my beloved walking in the garden,

Gedinen zartavetsav im yari voske nalov.

The ground was decorated by my love’s golden heel.

Blbooli pes ptut eka vardi vra dzen talov,

Like the nightingale going around the rose, calling.

Junun elav khiks glkhes, sirts tkhoor ackhes lalov.

Mad with love my mind left my head, my heart is sad, my eyes weep.

Hoys unim im Stightsoghemen mir dushmann eli es halov.

I have hope from my Creator, let our enemy be in this state.

Yar, ed koo naz oo ghamzov jans pel oo pand is ari, 

Love with your grace and coquetry you have imprisoned and enchanted my body,

Khmil is eshkhov sharbatn proshnirt ghand is ari,

You drank the syrup with love, your lips became sugary.

Khatookhalov, kaghtsr lizvov shat indzpesin band is ari,

With beautiful features, your sweet tongue, you have imprisoned many like me.

Toor danakn, indzi spane, mi asi rishkhant is ari. 

Stab me with the knife, kill me, don’t say that you have mocked me.

Chunki mahes yarimen e, toogh li mirnim lav gozalov.

Because my death is from my beloved, let me die with a beautiful one.

Tarin tasnerkoo amis maziret hoosats kooli.

Twelve months of the year your hair is braided.

Proshemet mighr e katoom, tooghnis yakhed tats kooli.

From your lips flows honey, if you allow your collar will be wet.

Goornan shnchi tsaghki nman karmir vardet bats kooli.

Like a spring breath your bred rose will be open.

Inch ogoot e koo baghmnchoon gharib blboolen lats kooli.

What is the use of your gardener, the wandering nightingale will be crying.

Moorvat chunis, ptut gooka baghchi vra chkchkalov. 

You have no mercy, it is crying as it goes around the garden.

Yip koo sooratn kashin naghshumen shnook koo tas.

When they draw your face, you give the picture the gift. 

Koo vrvras chragi pes saghcumen shnook koo tas.

You crackle like a torch, you give the gift to the torchstand.

Mshkov liken broli pes taghchumen shnook koo tas.

Full of fragrant oil like crystal, you give the gift to the shelf.

Bats koolis karmir vardi pes baghchumen shnook koo tas.

When you will open like a red rose, you give the gift to the garden.

Kamin dibchi mechn hootet gooka vrvralov.

When the wind touches your petal, your fragrance comes wafting.

Yis el oorish yar chunim, es glkhen vagh imatsi.

I have no other beloved, know this right from the start.

Angatch ara, matagh im kiz, es khoskes sagh imatsi.

Listen, I will die for you, know my entire speech.

Mtik ara koo Stightsoghin tooz-namag-agh imatsi.

Look at your Creator, know the salt.

Sayat Novin mi jegretsni eshkhemet toosagh imatsi.

Don’t make Sayat Nova angry, know I am a prisoner of your love.

Khilks glkhemen taril is koo, bemurvat, gardish talov.

You have taken away my mind, ruthless one, with your walk.

While I’m working on new translations, here is a Sayat Nova poem I translated and here is the music that goes with it.

James mentioned Haifa Wehbe in a recent post, which is as good an excuse as any to have a new series of random foreign pop culture posts in the coming days.  Here is a video of one of Haifa Wehbe’s songs, and here is an old favourite of mine from her fellow Lebanese star Nawal al-Zoghbi.  Coming in the near future, I will try to revive my old series of Armenian poetry-related posts.

The campaign panel was certainly not boring — for me, the entertaining highlight was when Peter Wehner unironically compared John McCain to Pericles of Athens. ~Dan Drezner

Wehner probably didn’t intend the comparison (which is ridiculous in any case) to be an insult, but if you consider the closing years of Pericles’ career he presided over the beginning of the collapse of Athenian power and led Athens in the early years of a long war that it later lost in catastrophic fashion (and he was in some significant measure responsible for the outbreak of the war).  Then there is Pericles’ role in continuing the process of building up Athens’ hegemony over its allies in the Delian League, ultimately provoking the backlash by the allies that rallied around Sparta.  That actually does sound a bit like McCain.

Writing on the incoherence of McCain’s policy proposals, Sullivan gives as an example: “the League of Democracies that wouldn’t, for some reason, include India.”  At first, this struck me as something that McCain would do, since it makes no sense even from his own perspective, but it isn’t really true.  India wouldn’t want to join such a League, but McCain seems quite willing to extend an invitation to India, as he did by implication in his speech in Los Angeles when he classed India among the “leading democracies.”  It is Russia he is obsessed with excluding, and wants to oust them from the G-8 while bringing in Brazil and India, as he said in the same major World Affairs Council speech that I discuss in my column in the issue of TAC that is currently online.  If you think continuing to worsen our relations with Moscow is a priority, McCain’s foreign policy is plenty coherent.  It’s also terrible. 

For what it’s worth, he’s also committed to damaging relations with India, too, inasmuch as he wants to impose the same restrictions on them that Kyoto imposes on states that have ratified it.  Closing that loophole would remove one kind of objection to Kyoto, I suppose, but India would never ratify such measures and proposing it would sour relations.  Doing that also presupposes that making Kyoto’s ratification more politically viable is actually desirable.

(In case you missed it: There was a January New York Times story, which did not get the attention the reporting deserved, highlighting how this Canadian tycoon and major Bill Clinton benefactor was using his ties to the ex-president to win business with a ruthless dictatorship in Khazakstan.) ~The Politico

Despite the enriching cultural experience of Borat, the folks at Politico are still not well-versed enough in the finer points of Kazakh life, such that they don’t know how to spell the name of the country.  You also have to enjoy the reference to Kazakhstan’s “ruthless dictatorship,” which is one of our foremost Central Asian puppets allies.  Since this is supposed to be what “Obama wishes he could say,” are they claiming that Obama wishes he could insult Kazakhstan?

The new Rasmussen poll from New Hampshire can hardly be encouraging to Obama’s boosters.  Two months ago, Obama had a comfortable lead of thirteen over McCain in this heavily Democratic-trending state, but now trails by ten and his unfavs have shot up to 48%.  McCain wins every age group and all but one income group, and Obama draws just 68% of Democrats.  Young voters, who once went for Obama in large numbers, now give McCain a 52-46 edge in that group. 

54% say it is likely Obama shares some of Wright’s views, and 56% see his denunciation of the pastor simply as an act of political convenience.  The damage has been well and truly done.  Thus, in a state where 73% disapprove of Mr. Bush, McCain currently wins a majority of support.

In the past few weeks, I have been noting the remarkable resistance to Obama among Kentuckians, including Democrats, and the polling data by region support the anecdotal evidence supplied by George Packer in a recent post.  Opposition to Obama has deepened in just the last two weeks, especially in eastern Kentucky, where Clinton led by 63 in mid-April and now leads by 74.  These margins from eastern Kentucky are approaching the comical.  In eastern Kentucky, according to SUSA, Obama has lost 22 points in the month of April in the Democratic primary poll.  Statewide, Clinton’s lead remains basically unchanged throughout the month (currently 63-27), but the race has tended to polarise between Louisville and the rest of the state, in much the same way Pennsylvania did in the closing weeks of the campaign.  That’s potentially better news for Yarmuth, whose 3rd District seat is centered on Louisville, but terrible news for Obama.  It is solidifying, rather than weakening, the image of him as the urban, liberal candidate who has no traction in the rest of the country.  The Kentucky primary is 22 days away, and Obama has done nothing but go down around the state outside Louisville for the last 30 days. 

Young voters may generally be trending Democratic, but young Democrats are definitely not going for Obama in the primary (he loses 18-34 year olds to Clinton by 28) and young voters generally do not prefer him to McCain in Kentucky, which he loses 63-29 overall.  He loses to McCain among these 18-34 year old voters by 41 points, while Clinton leads McCain by one in the same group (she trails by just 2 in the overall results).  That’s a pretty staggering difference.  Counterintuitively, Obama is more likely to receive support from older Kentuckians in the general than from younger ones.  43% of Democrats back McCain, and 44% back Obama.  It’s an open question whether he can secure a majority of his own partisans against McCain in this state.   

West Virginia is similarly unfriendly territory.  Rasmussen’s latest poll, which is now over a month old and so may overestimate Obama’s level of support, showed Clinton ahead 55-27.  Looking ahead to the general, 41% of respondents in WV said they were unlikely to vote for Obama against McCain (25% said the same about Clinton).  41%!  Even the demographics where Obama is usually very strong do not support him overwhelmingly: he leads among 18-29 year old Democrats by 5 points, and the only income group where he is even competitive is the $100K+ earners (he still trails by three).

Now Kentucky has been a “red” state in recent elections, but this SUSA polling shows that it could be competitive this year as it was in the ’90s (Clinton won here both times), unless Obama is the nominee.  West Virginia has been a “red” state for the past two cycles, but is not obviously out of reach for the Democrats (having voted for Clinton twice), but Obama seems to do unusually poorly in these states.  These were also states that Carter won in ’76, as did Truman in ’48.  The last Democrat to lose Kentucky and (technically) win the general election was Kennedy, but even Kennedy carried West Virginia.  So no Democrat has won the White House in the last 60 years and not won at least one of these states, and all but one winner has won both.  That doesn’t necessarily mean that a Democratic candidate must win these states, but it suggests that a Democratic candidate who has the ability to carry the old Border states is probably able to win the general election and one who cannot will not.