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The Politics Of Plague

'Broader Japanese society realizes that life as we knew it is over'
Coronavirus and Japan flag, a virus pandemic started in the Chinese city of Wuhan and is spreading across the world.

A reader forwarded me a note from his nephew, and American who teaches in Japan. I’m posting it with his permission; I’ve slightly edited it to take out identifying details:

I just wanted to write to you to share some additional information about the evacuation of Americans that you mentioned in your post (https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/politics-of-plague-coronavirus-japan/).

I’m not directly involved in the State Department’s response to the Coronavirus, but as someone who’s worked in Diplomatic Security for 5+ years, I do know Dr. William Walters, the head of Operational Medicine and apparently the man who made the decision (see here: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/22/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-cruise-ship.html); I should note that I only know him professionally. He’s prior military, and the idea that he’s a flaming liberal or a “deep state” agent is laughable. Although I wasn’t there, one can read from open sources about the State Department’s medical evacuation capabilities (e.g. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/32248/747s-carrying-americans-exposed-to-coronavirus-used-new-quarantine-box-for-infected-flyers), and in general I know that Dr. Walters and his whole department have the medical evacuation of AMCITS (American citizens) from difficult and dangerous situation as one of their primary goals (they also provide “tactical medicine” capabilities in places like our Embassy in Iraq, where I’ll be transferring later this year).

Although I too am extremely concerned about Coronavirus getting loose in America (especially since my wife is an ER doctor), the most likely reason that OPMED made the decision to proceed with the evacuation is simply that they didn’t want to “pull granny off the plane” when they had the capabilities to evacuate everyone there. Plus, all those on the flight are in 14 day quarantine in secure facilities, so if/when Coronavirus gets here it won’t be because of these specialized evacuation flights, but rather someone (probably asymptomatic) who came in on a regular flight from Italy, Israel, South Korea, etc.

While those that Americans traditionally think of as diplomats may be more liberal (actually centrist) than average, it’s a tremendous mistake to assume that those of us in specialties like Consular, Medical, and Security don’t put the well-being of American citizens first each and every day, often risking our lives to do so. Perhaps the CDC was right and those infected on the flight should have been pulled off and left in Japan for the greater good (hopefully not just because Trump is a germaphobe), but it was NOT a deep state conspiracy; rather it was, if anything, State looking out for the well-being of American citizens overseas.

This idea that the epidemic is well under way in the U.S. is front headlines on Yahoo Japan this morning (which is different than Yahoo elsewhere in the world now; independent division and a primary news source in Japan); it is also in the prime news talk shows as well; that the ‘flu season’ in the U.S. could also be reporting on a portion of a coronavirus epidemic well underway.  Furthermore, another Japanese doctor speculates that the U.S. under reported (or blacked out)  epidemic was *concurrent* to the Chinese outbreak, or extremely close in timing.  This has led to speculation that there was a simultaneous attack/release (or a defensive counterattack after discovering corona virus in the U.S.). Of course, people are freaked out, so we are keeping a somewhat skeptical stance, but that this is in the mainstream Japanese is noteworthy.

The Princess Diamond was a fiasco and is likely to be the death knell of current administration; the backlash is so strong that the military has finally been activated to take over handling the ship and calls are for the military to handle further steps in managing the ongoing outbreaks here — there is greater trust in the military protocols than trusting elected bureaucrats (who infected many of their own staff already, Keystone Cops as they proved to be).

We decided to pull our son out of the last three weeks of classes starting Monday.  I am prepping my teaching for April for online teaching; we think there is a good chance that classes will not resume normally — if they try to, I may quit.  My wife can still work from home and we can hunker down pretty effectively — at this point we want to buy time until more effective treatments are tested.  Broader Japanese society realizes that life as we knew it is over.

There was a terrible famine in Russia, in 1891-92.  The tsarist government botched the handling of the catastrophe. This deeply undermined public confidence in the political order, and threw fuel on the smoldering revolutionary fire. Do not doubt for a moment how the state’s inability to handle a major public health crisis can shake the political order to its foundations. The American people already have very low confidence in our public institutions. We could be headed into uncharted waters, and indeed, may already be in them, but we just don’t realize it yet.

I’m eager to hear from readers in Japan, South Korea, Italy, and elsewhere dealing with outbreaks…

UPDATE: The Doctor says I should include the news that President Trump was furious about the decision to bring 14 infected Americans from that cruise ship back to the US — a decision that the CDC refused to sign off on. From the NYT:

President Trump was infuriated that 14 American citizens who had tested positive for coronavirus were permitted to return this week to the United States, said two senior administration officials. The decision had taken the president, a self-declared “germophobe,” by surprise.

Officials at the State Department decided to bring back the citizens, who had been quarantined on the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan, after consulting with a senior official at the Department of Health and Human Services. But officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention objected, concerned that the passengers, among hundreds of Americans being evacuated from the ship, could spread the virus. News organizations reported on the decision on Monday, and the passengers arrived in the United States that day.

How on earth could the State Department go ahead and do something so dangerous to public health that the CDC refused to endorse it? Well, it happened.

UPDATE: A reader writes:

I just wanted to write to you to share some additional information about the evacuation of Americans that you mentioned in your post (https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/politics-of-plague-coronavirus-japan/).

I’m not directly involved in the State Department’s response to the Coronavirus, but as someone who’s worked in Diplomatic Security for 5+ years, I do know Dr. William Walters, the head of Operational Medicine and apparently the man who made the decision (see here: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/22/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-cruise-ship.html); I should note that I only know him professionally. He’s prior military, and the idea that he’s a flaming liberal or a “deep state” agent is laughable. Although I wasn’t there, one can read from open sources about the State Department’s medical evacuation capabilities (e.g. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/32248/747s-carrying-americans-exposed-to-coronavirus-used-new-quarantine-box-for-infected-flyers), and in general I know that Dr. Walters and his whole department have the medical evacuation of AMCITS (American citizens) from difficult and dangerous situation as one of their primary goals (they also provide “tactical medicine” capabilities in places like our Embassy in Iraq).

Although I too am extremely concerned about Coronavirus getting loose in America (especially since my wife is an ER doctor), the most likely reason that OPMED made the decision to proceed with the evacuation is simply that they didn’t want to “pull granny off the plane” when they had the capabilities to evacuate everyone there. Plus, all those on the flight are in 14 day quarantine in secure facilities, so if/when Coronavirus gets here it won’t be because of these specialized evacuation flights, but rather someone (probably asymptomatic) who came in on a regular flight from Italy, Israel, South Korea, etc.

While those that Americans traditionally think of as diplomats may be more liberal (actually centrist) than average, it’s a tremendous mistake to assume that those of us in specialties like Consular, Medical, and Security don’t put the well-being of American citizens first each and every day, often risking our lives to do so. Perhaps the CDC was right and those infected on the flight should have been pulled off and left in Japan for the greater good (hopefully not just because Trump is a germaphobe), but it was NOT a deep state conspiracy; rather it was, if anything, State looking out for the well-being of American citizens overseas.

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