COVID-19 has ravaged many industries, forcing them into dramatic reinventions. Now, as we gradually re-open, American businesses that have successfully adapted to the restrictions are better prepared to weather the new circumstances. The $150 billion cruise industry, which is heavily dependent on a middle-class customer base, has paradoxically emerged as one of the winners in this new economy, as 2021 bookings surge. 

Some 30 million people went on a cruise in 2019. Yet as early as March, analysts were ringing the death knell for ocean liner travel after 700 individuals contacted COVID on the Diamond Princess and an additional 25 ships also reported cases. Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health warned the public in March not to “get on a cruise ship” during a Meet the Press appearance. Surgeon General Jerome Adams on CNN that same month advised older Americans and those with medical conditions to “rethink taking a cruise.” 

The industry suffered another black eye in mid-May when reports surfaced that 100,000 crew members were stranded at sea, some without pay, due to the complicated legal guidelines about releasing and repatriating individuals from ships with COVID occurrences. 

While the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has docked cruise travel until at least late July, the top three cruise lines, Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian Cruise Line, stated that although bookings for the balance of 2020 are down, and some itineraries have been canceled, bookings for 2021 and 2022 are at parity with historical levels. The volume of advance purchases is especially encouraging. As Mark Kempa, Norwegian’s chief financial officer commented in a recent earnings call, “we have taken a significant amount of new cash…during a period where we had a horrific news flow and we had essentially zero marketing in the market.” 

Some analysts say that many are comfortable booking cruises because the cruise companies have loosened their cancelation requirements to allow straight refunds. Others are generous 125 percent credit packages for cancelations. 

The cruise industry’s amazing resiliency may seem counterintuitive but it’s not all that surprising when you consider its mass appeal and ability—proven through history—to reinvent itself. 

Today, the cruise business caters to all age groups, socio-economic levels, and lifestyles, as well as a plethora of niche special interests. However, this was not always the case. From the late 1800s into the turn of the century, the large steamship lines were predominantly used to transport millions of immigrants to the United States and a handful of wealthy Americans and Europeans on transatlantic voyages. 

The most famous of these ships was the ill-fated RMS Titanic, which on April 14, 1912 struck an iceberg and sank within three hours, killing 1,500 of its 2,240 passengers and crew. The 1920s brought new U.S. immigration laws, which slowed the flow of immigrants and abraded the shipping lines’ profits. Consequently, the industry found a new revenue stream by packaging and promoting ocean steam liners as floating luxury hotels with first-class dining in opulent settings. The United States, which in 1952 crossed the Atlantic in a record-setting three days, 10 hours, and 40 minutes, became the ship of choice.

While ocean travel between the 1920s and 1960s was marketed as a vacation option for the middle and upper classes, most passengers were affluent. This all changed in the late 1960s with the rise of commercial air travel. A three-day cruise to Europe could not compete with an eight-hour flight. Suddenly, the industry was forced not only to redefine ocean liner travel but to broaden its customer base. Cruises became more about the journey than the destination, with a greater focus on the shipboard experience and the expansion of amenities and entertainment.

The industry also expanded value propositions and customized prices to appeal to middle-class American families, young marrieds, retired couples, and solo passengers. The paradigm shift started taking place in 1966 with the founding of Norwegian Cruise Line by Knut Kloster, a Norwegian-born shipping magnate, and his partner, Israel-born businessman Ted Arison. Norwegian positioned cruising as a luxury vacation that was a “good value for the money.” Arison ultimately parted company with Kloster in 1972 to establish Carnival Cruise Line, which built a legacy of catering to the middle class.

Popular culture took note of the cruise industry’s changing customer base. In 1969, Paul Gallico published The Poseidon Adventure, a novel about a fictional ocean liner, the S.S. Poseidon, which capsizes after it’s overturned following an underwater earthquake that touches off a 90-foot wave. The ship, a single-class combination cargo-cruise line, is reflective of the industry’s then-recent courtship of everyday Americans.

Since the fictional Poseidon was making the lion’s share of its revenue from cargo shipment, it was able to discount pricing so that a luxury one-month cruise would be accessible. The passenger list was reflective of this sea change. Gallico’s book, which was adapted for screen, with Irwin Allen’s 1972 The Poseidon Adventure featuring college all-American football player-turned-minister Dr. Frank Scott (Gene Hackman), New York city delicatessen owner and his wife Manny and Belle Rosen (Jack Albertson and Shelley Winters), New York City police officer and his former actress wife Mike and Linda Rogo (Ernest Borgnine and Stella Stevens), and the Michigan-based Shelby family’s 17-year-old daughter Susan (Pamela Sue Martin).

In the late 1970s, the cruise industry was further buoyed with the advent of a new television series The Love Boat, which ran from 1977 to 1986. The top-rated Aaron Spelling series, which focused on the adventures of the fictional passengers and crew of a real ship, the original Pacific Princess, has been credited with mass-marketing the cruise vacation as an affordable luxury for main street America. As Bob Dickinson, a longtime Carnival Cruise Lines executive, said in an interview, “The Love Boat was the tipping point, the fulcrum that transformed the entire cruise industry.” 

The series, which showcased weekly guest stars from old and new Hollywood, not only made cruising accessible for the middle class, it also glamorized sea employment. 

Forty-plus years later, the cruise industry, with 278 ships in operation, a payroll of $50.24 billion, and 1,177,000 global employees, offers enough diverse experiences to satisfy virtually every segment of the population. Or as Jack Jones’ iconic theme claimed, “there’s something for everyone.” The value-based family demographic continues to be critical, with 32 percent of cruisers with children under 18 surveyed saying that they are likely to bring their children with them on vacation, versus 25 percent for non-cruisers. Disney’s  Magic (1998) and its sister ships were launched to capitalize on the family market by offering child-centric amenities along with programs for their parents.

Like other industries, the cruise business has been forced to implement new guidelines to service a post-COVID world. Norwegian is the first major cruise line to announce its new health protocols, which include an on-board health officer, pre-boarding health screenings, staggered embarkation and check-in procedures, and the installation of medical-grade air filters. On-ship activities will also be limited to smaller groups for social distancing. And the legendary buffet will be full-service to minimize crowding. Furthermore, as ships are projected to sail initially at 60 percent capacity, new revenue streams will be created.

The cruise industry is poised for a successful return to the waters this summer given its historical resiliency and loyal customer base. It turns out not even COVID can overcome the lure of the sea (and an affordable luxury vacation). As President John F. Kennedy famously said, “We are tied to the ocean. And when we go back to the sea, whether it is to sail or to watch it we are going back from whence we came.”