If 90 percent of Colombian exports already enter the United States duty free, how is the FTA really going to increase jobs in Colombian export industries? In fact, it’s not going to create many jobs for Colombians. Actually the deal may well destroy a lot of Colombian jobs. Recall that U.S. exports are projected to grow by $1 billion. I already noted that that’s not a lot for the U.S., but it’s a pretty big increase in imports for a tiny economy like Colombia’s, and the bulk of it would be in agricultural products.

Now think about NAFTA and how that FTA was supposed to create jobs in Mexico and reduce illegal immigration into the United States. Well, one downside of NAFTA has been that subsidized U.S. agriculture such as corn, sugar, and cotton growing has been given easy access to the Mexican market and devastated smaller-scale Mexican peasant farms. The result has been a severe hit on the Mexican economy and an increase in illegal immigration along the U.S. southern border.

The danger for Colombia (and the United States) is similar. Big, subsidized U.S. agriculture will have free run of the market. Far from finding new licit jobs, displaced Colombian small-scale farmers may well be forced to find more illicit jobs in coca growing and cocaine making. ~Clyde Prestowitz

Despite some improvements on labor protections that the administration has negotiated with the Colombian government, this remains the main problem with the Colombian free trade agreement. The U.S. will receive negligible benefits from this deal if it benefits at all, but the cost to Colombia in the displacement and impoverishment of small-scale farmers will be significant. The greater social and economic stratification that this will likely produce will undermine Colombia’s political stability. I can understand why certain U.S. agribusinesses and large Colombian landowners would want the agreement passed. I can even see why the Colombian government is eager to reach a deal, since small-scale farmers are hardly the Colombians whose interests Santos is most interested in serving. What doesn’t make sense is why it should be U.S. policy to flood the Colombian market with our subsidized agricultural products when this seems likely to ruin the livelihoods of tens of thousands of Colombians, potentially destabilize Colombia, and exacerbate political tensions in a country that has suffered from decades of conflict and political violence.