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Vance Wins CPAC 2028 Straw Poll, but Rubio Rises

State of the Union: Analysts say the war with Iran hurts the vice president’s chances.
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Vice President J.D. Vance on Saturday won a key straw poll for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. But the results indicated that Vance is no longer the clear front-runner in the race.

Fifty-three percent of voting attendees at the Conservative Political Action Conference selected Vance. Secretary of State Marco Rubio finished second at 35 percent. No other candidate cracked three percent.

Last year, Vance led the poll with 61 percent and populist firebrand Steve Bannon, who was not on this year’s ballot, came in second with 12 percent. Rubio garnered only 3 percent.

This year’s results bolster the view that Vance remains the favorite to succeed President Donald Trump in 2028 but has lost ground to Rubio. The latter has been an active figure in the White House due to his role as both top diplomat and national security adviser. 

Many analysts believe the Trump administration’s militarism abroad—especially the war with Iran—raises political risks for Vance, who has built a reputation advocating for a more restrained foreign policy.

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