Philip Giraldi makes a lot of sense in challenging the recent frenzy of “Obamacan” discussion. He is quite right that we have been caught up in speculation that’s quite far removed from most Republicans and conservatives, and he’s also right that at this point it is premature to dismiss Obama. It’s worth noting that a lot of the speculation about Obama’s electoral prospects has often taken for granted that he is in a position to poach on McCain’s territory and expand the Democratic coalition, but it seems distinctly possible that he will hemorrhage so much Democratic support in the general that any gains will be quickly erased. To the extent that polling this far removed from November is any indication of real voting preferences, however many Republicans say they will back Obama are outnumbered in just about every state by the Democrats who will back McCain. One example of this comes from North Carolina today, as Rasmussen has found that 56% of Clinton backers in the Democratic primary say they are not likely to vote for Obama against McCain. Since just 33% of respondents prefer Clinton, the probable loss of this many voters is in line with the 16-20% of Democrats Obama loses to McCain across the country outside of “blue” states such as Maine. (In fact, this figure seems slightly better than the 23% of Democrats he was losing to McCain in a poll from late March; in that poll, he was getting 15% of Republicans.) Typically, Obama is drawing two-thirds or sometimes just half as many Republicans outside “blue” states. It is likely true that Obama is drawing many long-time Republican voters to his side, but what he seems to have difficulty with is keeping the Democrats that previous nominees have won.
P.S. For a few other examples of this: in New Jersey, McCain has 24% of Democrats, Obama 18% of Republicans as of a week ago; in Wisconsin, McCain has 16% of Democrats, Obama 10% of Republicans. By comparison, Missouri is a disaster for Obama: McCain gets 22% of Democrats, Obama 7% of Republicans.