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Scotland’s Possible Post-Independence Roles in NATO and the EU

The Economist‘s Bagehot recently interviewed Alex Salmond, Scotland’s First Minister, and they talked briefly about how an independent Scotland would relate to NATO: Another big, tricky question is what to do about defence policy in the event of a break-up. Would Scotland leave NATO, I asked? Ah, replied Mr Salmond happily. SNP policy is that […]

The Economist‘s Bagehot recently interviewed Alex Salmond, Scotland’s First Minister, and they talked briefly about how an independent Scotland would relate to NATO:

Another big, tricky question is what to do about defence policy in the event of a break-up. Would Scotland leave NATO, I asked? Ah, replied Mr Salmond happily. SNP policy is that Scotland would not be in the command structures of NATO. That means it would be like Sweden or Ireland.

Well hang on, I found myself saying again. Sweden and Ireland are not members of NATO. They’re members of Partnership for Peace, said Mr Salmond. Yes, but that means they are not members of NATO, I said. (It was that kind of interview).

Unless I am mistaken, wouldn’t an independent Scotland have to go through the admission process required for any other new member of the alliance? If I’m reading Salmond’s answer correctly, he is saying that Scotland would not attempt to join the alliance after independence. I see no problem with that. NATO has long since outlived its purpose as a collective defensive alliance, and there wouldn’t seem to be any reason for Scotland to belong to the alliance. The SNP doesn’t want any of Britain’s nuclear arsenal, so NATO wouldn’t lose very much if Scotland voted to break away.

The EU is potentially trickier for the SNP, since a post-independence Scotland would need to belong to it, and there are EU members that would be wary of approving membership for a separatist state when they have their own separatist movements to worry about. James Forsyth recently discussed the prospect that Spain might block Scottish membership:

Alex Salmond’s case for independence relies on Scotland joining the European Union. If an independent Scotland was a member of the EU, then Scotland would be part of the single market and free movement of labour across the border could continue (an independent Scotland would also have to join the euro, but that’s something Salmond is less keen to talk about). But, as one Whitehall source points out to me, it is far from certain that Scotland would be able to join the EU.

The Spanish are currently blocking Kosovo’s accession to the EU. Why? Because the Spanish, who don’t even recognise Kosovo as a state, fear the implications of a region becoming independent and then joining the EU. They worry that it would encourage Basque separatism. There’s no guarantee that they wouldn’t take a similar attitude to an independent Scotland, especially if the PPP — the current governing party — is in power.

There might be a way around this. Provided that Scotland’s referendum process were accepted as legal by London, the Scots could argue that their independence was not the sort of arbitrary and illegal partition of a sovereign state as was the case with Kosovo’s recognition. In that way, the Scots could say that their case is quite different from that of Kosovo, and the two shouldn’t be confused. Then they could make a deal with any European governments worried about creating a precedent for their own separatists that Scotland would not recognize or support EU bids for any separatist states that broke away without the consent of their respective central governments. In other words, Scotland could negotiate its way into the EU by pledging to pull up the ladder after Scotland gained entry.

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