About That Electability

The latest WSJ/ABC News poll ^[1] has numbers for potential three-way contests with named independent candidates, Pat Buchanan and Michael Bloomberg.  Both of these are match-ups that are very, very, very unlikely, but the numbers are interesting for what they show about the decided lack of enthusiasm for Giuliani if there is a conservative candidate in the mix.  In a three-way contest between Clinton, Giuliani and Buchanan, the results are 44-35-12 respectively.  A Bloomberg candidacy seems to hurt Giuliani less and Clinton more, which makes sense, but it would only receive 10%.  Combined with generally lower levels of identification with the GOP and less intense support for a generic Republican as President, which are also reflected in earlier parts of the poll, this seems to confirm that there are a lot of people who would normally be Republican voters who will jump at just about any chance to vote for someone other than Giuliani.  This is probably not just Giuliani’s problem, but reflects the generally weak levels of support for the GOP overall.  However, until polls begin regularly testing three-way races with other Republican candidates that remains uncertain.