Greg Scoblete answers last week’s post on Israel and Iran:
I think his response conflates a question of efficacy (is it a good idea?) and probability (would they do it?). I tend to agree that a strike is probably on balance a bad idea for many of the reasons highlighted in Larison’s post.
But I also think that when push comes to shove Israel is willing to tolerate the risks associated with a strike much more than they are willing to tolerate the risks (as they see them) of not attacking.
Scoblete is right that I am basing my judgment about the likelihood of an Israeli attack on how likely it is that such an attack would achieve its objectives. Since it seems clear from all accounts that the Israeli military understands that an attack would not significantly delay Iran’s nuclear program, and they see that an attack would invite serious retaliation from Iran and its proxies that would threaten the civilian population in Israel, we have to believe that the Israeli government is willing to court immediate risks to its people for the sake of protecting itself against a threat that does not yet exist. The last two Israeli governments have made some blunders in recent years, but they cannot be so reckless as to start a regional war that wouldn’t even eliminate Iran’s nuclear program.
tbraton 
Assessing the liklihood of an Israeli attack on Iran, I believe, requires a deep understanding of the links in the decision making Israeli chain of command, how they inter-relate, and how susceptible the whole is to outside influence. Israel has been talking the talk for so long now that I worry that their decision makers are now hunkered down in the proverbial shell wherein their thinking feeds on the echoes of what they have been saying amongst themselves for years. There comes a point where you pull the trigger because your finger has been so long in the trigger guard and damn the consequences. They may well be at that point. Bush and Cheney were with respect to Iraq. They were utterly clueless with regard to consequences and the problems of reconstruction, and yet they forged ahead. I know only what I read about Netanyahu, Lieberman, Barak, but that gives little confidence their judgement will be any better than Bush-Cheney. The Israeli military will fall into line because that is what militaries do. In the end it will be easier for Israel to blindly forge ahead because the consequences and problems of reconstruction will be ours.