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Trump Can’t Close Any Deals

Perhaps the biggest political threat to Trump is the destruction of his unearned reputation as a dealmaker.
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Robin Wright reports on the many failures of Trump administration “diplomacy”:

The list of failures gets longer by the month—and increasingly dangerous for the President. As the campaign season heats up in January, vitriol is sure to focus on his diplomatic shortfalls.

Trump is heading into an election year with no meaningful foreign policy successes to his name. That might not be such a liability if he had anything else to run on, but since he has devoted a considerable portion of his presidency to his foreign policy initiatives the lack of positive results is a problem for him. When we consider that the trade wars he started are inflicting a lot of damage on many of the same constituencies that supported him in 2016, his inability to secure agreements on anything will likely have an impact on his reelection prospects. Perhaps the biggest political threat to Trump is the destruction of his unearned reputation as a dealmaker. That is supposed to be the one thing that he knows how to do, and he has demonstrated time after time that he doesn’t know the first thing about international negotiations.

He has no respect for diplomacy, and he doesn’t understand how diplomacy works, so it is not surprising that he is so bad at it. Instead of securing new agreements, he has squandered a real opportunity with North Korea, and he has deliberately stoked tensions with Iran. He foolishly took ownership of a regime change effort in Venezuela that has yielded nothing but more suffering for people in Venezuela. For all of his empty blather about building a better relationship with Russia, he has scuttled one arms control treaty with Moscow and seems determined to scrap New START as well. His signature move of reneging on agreements in an attempt to force more concessions from other parties has consistently backfired and left the U.S. in a worse position than when he started. Trump has shown that he can burn down the diplomatic achievements of others, but all that the U.S. has to show for his efforts is ashes and smoke.

It is a truism that most voters don’t vote on foreign policy as such, but they do judge incumbent presidents on their record and they tend to punish presidents who are and are perceived to be ineffectual and incompetent. Trump’s failure to deliver on anything he has promised is presumably going to be held against him. I imagine that most voters will recognize that his threats and bluster gain the U.S. nothing.

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