I won’t guess the final percentages, but I suspect the result will be Romney, Huntsman, Paul, Santorum, Gingrich. The surprise here would be Huntsman outperforming Paul; there are four reasons to think it might happen. First, Paul seemed to have a hard time winning over last-minute deciders in Iowa, and the polling so far in New Hampshire suggests that Huntsman is getting more of them than Paul. The youthfulness of Paul’s core support is one of the strengths of his campaign, but it’s also a weakness in that young voters aren’t always disciplined enough to show up and vote. A third factor to consider are reports that Paul’s Granite State effort has again taken on a Woodstockian flavor, as it did in 2008. Not that the Paul kids are smoking dope and listening to Hendrix, but it seems that a.) Paul events have been mobbed by out-of-staters coming to see the rock star rather than to get work done, and b.) enthusiastic Paulians have been indulging in such antics as organizing a sign-wave in front of Newt Gingrich’s headquarters, a move that could hardly be better calculated not to win undecided votes for their man. Lastly, Paul himself had rather a rough day yesterday. Voter complacency, grassroots onanism, and bad luck — it’s a recipe for a strong candidate to finish third.