The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index rose 3.8 percent year-over-year (YOY) in April, the highest since May 2023 and up from 3.5 percent in March. Core PCE, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, saw it rise by 3.3 percent YOY.

The PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation in the broader economy, making this high reading the first signal of rising inflation in the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s tenure. Investors trading on Treasury bond markets and on Federal Funds Futures currently are pricing in interest-rate hikes from the nation’s central bank of at least 0.30 percent through 2027. 

The high reports for the PCE follow earlier reports this month of the consumer and producer price indexes reaching their highest since the Biden administration.