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What Will the Democratic Party Decide?

A straight-up contest between Biden and Sanders would be useful in forcing the party to choose between its past and its future.
bernie sanders

Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have both dropped out of the 2020 race, and they will be endorsing Biden tonight:

Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg plans to endorse former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. in the Democratic presidential race, according to a person informed of the decision, as the Democratic Party’s moderate wing quickly began coalescing around Mr. Biden in an effort to stop Senator Bernie Sanders from winning the Democratic nomination.

Mr. Buttigieg’s endorsement, which is set to come at a Biden campaign event Monday night in Dallas, follows the news that another moderate candidate, Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, was quitting the race and throwing her support to Mr. Biden. She also plans to back Mr. Biden at the Dallas event.

The decision to endorse Biden isn’t all that surprising given the candidates’ views and ambitions, but it is a bit curious that they waited as long as they did. Endorsements practically at the last minute before Super Tuesday aren’t likely to have much effect on voting, and lots of early votes have already been cast in many states. The “centrist” rallying to Biden is what anti-Sanders Democrats have been demanding for weeks, but it seems that no one wanted to do it until Biden actually won at least one contest. It is probably too late to beat Sanders in most of the contests tomorrow, and Klobuchar’s decision to quit makes it easier for Sanders to win in Minnesota. Biden spent so much of his time and energy on South Carolina because it was essential that he win it, and he won it convincingly, but that came at the cost of neglecting the states that hold their elections tomorrow. Many people have noted that this is the first time in his three presidential campaigns that Biden has won anything, so it is reasonable to question how many more wins he can get.

The “centrist” rallying to Biden will be useful in clarifying the race and testing the dubious theory that most Democratic voters prefer a “centrist” candidate. If they have to choose between Biden and Sanders, there is good reason to think that most Democratic voters would prefer the latter. We will begin to find out tomorrow if that’s the case. A straight-up contest between Biden and Sanders would be useful in forcing the party to choose between its past and its future. David Klion made this point earlier today:

Bloomberg’s continued presence in the race will remain a boon to Sanders, and he will provide Warren with an easy target for as long as she chooses to stay in the race. Not only does Bloomberg reduce Biden’s chances of winning in most places tomorrow, but he has served as an avatar of the kind of politics that Sanders is running against. The longer Bloomberg persists in his vanity campaign, the better Sanders’ chances of becoming the nominee are. Luckily for Sanders, Bloomberg is far too arrogant and entitled to acknowledge this. Warren seems to be betting on a contested convention outcome, but for the life of me I don’t understand what she hopes to get out of that.

For the moment, Sanders remains the front-runner for the nomination, and he has an opportunity tomorrow to amass a significant lead in the delegate count. He is in a good position to win California by a large margin. Sanders is likely to sweep the three Northeastern states, he should carry Colorado and Utah, and he may win Texas and Minnesota. If Biden is going to pick up any wins, it is likely to be in Oklahoma and the Southern states, but he could very well end up losing North Carolina and Arkansas. After tomorrow, it will effectively be a two-candidate race.

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