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Trump Is on Track to Dominate Super Tuesday

Trump has led the polling in every state voting today [1] except three (Texas, Arkansas, and Minnesota), and he is very likely to win at least seven of the eight states where he has led. While the delegate allocation in these states is proportional, there are fairly high thresholds in several states (Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas) that require a candidate to get 20% to be awarded any delegates. Some other states have thresholds of 10 or 15%. In both kinds of states, either Cruz or Rubio has been falling short of these thresholds and may receive nothing.

Texas should be a particularly interesting election, because there are so many delegates at stake (155) that could end up being divided up three ways. Cruz has been consistently leading in Texas, but he is averaging less than 40%. That leaves him short of the 50% winner-take-all [2] trigger, and that should allow Trump to pick up a significant number of delegates. If Rubio remains at 18% in Texas, he will miss out on delegates entirely.

Minnesota [3] is Rubio’s only realistic opportunity for a win. The last poll was taken there over a month ago, and Rubio’s lead was very small and may have disappeared in the meantime. He enjoys the backing of state party leaders and may be able to eke out a win in a low-turnout contest, but it will scarcely make up for being blown out by 10 or 20 points everywhere else. Rubio will receive more delegates from second or third-place finishes in other parts of the country, but finally coming in first somewhere would at least allow his campaign to say that they don’t always lose. Needless to say, if a candidate can’t win more than one race through Super Tuesday he certainly isn’t going to be the nominee.

Trump and Cruz were neck-and-neck in Alaska [1] two months ago, and Cruz was slightly ahead the last time anyone checked in Arkansas at the start of February. In every other state today, Trump is set to win, and in almost all of them he should win easily. He leads by 10 points or more everywhere from Oklahoma to Vermont to Alabama to Georgia to Virginia. The election in Massachusetts will also be a walkover for Trump. If Cruz comes up short in Alaska and Arkansas, we could be looking at Trump victories in nine states tonight.

Cruz has been losing some ground in Southern states ahead of today’s voting, and that puts him at risk of finishing third in Alabama, Georgia, and Virginia. He has just enough support that he should qualify for delegates in Alabama and Georgia, but coming in behind Rubio in Southern states where Cruz expected to be very competitive will be a bad result for him. The continued presence of Carson in the race can’t be helping him, since Carson continues to pull 6-10% in many states that might have otherwise gone to Cruz. If Cruz can win somewhere outside Texas, it will be in Arkansas, and notching a third win there would help boost his claim that he is the Trump’s strongest competition. If Cruz is limited to just one win today, it will still give him minimal bragging rights that he can beat Trump in his home state, and that is more than Rubio will be able to claim in two weeks.

Barring some surprise collapse in turnout of his voters, Trump is about to romp all over the country, and seems very likely to do so over the next two weeks as well.

7 Comments (Open | Close)

7 Comments To "Trump Is on Track to Dominate Super Tuesday"

#1 Comment By Uncle Billy On March 1, 2016 @ 11:21 am

If Trump does well today, he is on a path to win the nomination. We are looking at the very real possibility, perhaps even probability of Trump being the GOP nominee. Then what? Can he defeat Hillary Clinton in November? Possibly, but can Trump appeal to moderates? Hispanics? He can certainly win the GOP nomination, but he may have trouble in a general election, with a population that is not as white and not as conservative as the Republican Party.

#2 Comment By Grumpy Old Man On March 1, 2016 @ 12:17 pm

The Kristol minyan wants a third party. They might get one. Hillary is making peace with the neoconnery. What have they got to lose? Romney-Sasse or Romney-Rubio. Even Bloomberg for VP–think of the money.

#3 Comment By Flavius On March 1, 2016 @ 12:25 pm

Trump v the Career Criminal in November…bring it on!
If Trump wins, that would be the bad news, but the good news would be that Clinton lost. If Clinton wins with the support of neo-con nation, the bad news speaks for itself; but the good news will be that the burnt out case of the Republican Party will be gone, gone, gone. Sayonara the perennials it’s been playing for stooges since forever.
There will be something for everyone come November, except maybe the country

#4 Comment By Mr. Libertarian On March 1, 2016 @ 12:30 pm

Everyone voting today in a Super Tuesday state on the Republican side (not me yet, Connecticut votes in April), check your ballot very carefully for errors.

#5 Comment By robz On March 1, 2016 @ 1:26 pm

Proposition: Trump is not worthy of anyone’s trust. He will flush any commitment down the toilet as soon as he sees that it no longer works in his favor.

True or false?

I say true, but then I’m definitely not a Trump fan. I only remember the many many instances of his faithlessness. The many many times he’s kept faith with his promises have probably escaped my notice.

#6 Comment By Fast Jimmy On March 1, 2016 @ 3:20 pm

Ben Sasse was ready to drive his country to default last budget standoff but is now a voice of our greater conscience?

Please. Spare us Mr. Sasse in your quest to be the next fresh-faced wonder boy with the soul of a praying mantis. You’re not fooling anyone and our nation is not what you’re trying to save.

#7 Comment By Mr. Libertarian On March 1, 2016 @ 7:12 pm

@ Fast Jimmy
Ben Sasse is backbencher nobody, I care nothing about.
What is he going to do? Really? Quit the GOP and join the Democrats?
Or continue to caucus with the Republicans?
Or stop getting committee assignments and just a lone senator going his own way?
Hey look I’ve done it! I said I’d never vote for McCain and vote third party. And I usually split my ticket.
It’s reminds me of an incident several years ago:
I remember a stern lecture I received in October 2008 from a neocon and social conservative (so double helping of crap, from the libertarian perspective), he knew I was a libertarian and had supported Ron Paul in the GOP primary, voted and contributed to Ron Paul and waved signs on primary day for him in my state, and this was when in October it was clear McCain-Palin was going down big time in flames in the election, and I said to him I was going to vote third-party because I can’t stand John McCain and I think Palin is not qualified to be Veep, but also that I was really angry about the Iraq War, and he said something along the lines of, don’t let your anger over the Iraq War allow Obama to win, because he’ll tax you to death and regulate the economy too much, to which I replied I don’t care about this, this ship is going to burn down and I’m getting off. Okay??
So much for that. Now there has been much discussion in the pages of TAC about what sort of hill is one willing to die on, or what kind of hill do you envision yourself dying on, or what do you want on your tombstone? But I can assure you, libertarians ain’t dying on any of them thar hills! Don’t know them hills! Will quitclaim deed to you those hills! Libertarians are now prominent enough as a group, and as a swing group, that they can envision new alliances and new power constellations that break and destroy the old idols.