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Politics Foreign Affairs Culture Fellows Program

Trump and Illiberal Hegemony

What we see is the result of what Barry Posen perceptively dubbed illiberal hegemony, in which Trump continues almost all of the same policies in a cruder fashion.
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Bonnie Kristian dissects Trump’s Jekyll-and-Hyde foreign policy:

So far, so good—but then Mr. Hyde broke out. Though the president insists “we’re out” of Syria, that simply isn’t true, as he conceded in this very press conference. “We are leaving soldiers [in Syria] to secure the oil,” Trump said. “And we may have to fight for the oil.” After announcing he wants American soldiers home, he immediately backtracked, indicating they could stay if they are “fighting something that’s meaningful.” (Local observers in Syria are already reporting U.S. forces have returned to the bases they just left.) Staying to control Syrian oil or land against claims from the Syrian regime, ISIS, or some new extremist group—or whatever else a president unilaterally deems “meaningful”—is not withdrawal. It is the opposite of withdrawal.

It does not bring an overlong war to an end; it does not stem the rising cost of intervention or prevent further bloodshed; and it does not contribute to American security. It unnecessarily keeps our soldiers from coming home, and it puts the United States at grave risk of broader conflict, including with nuclear-armed Russia.

A major problem with Trump’s foreign policy is that when it comes to what he does it is all Hyde. Even when he gestures in the direction of exiting an unnecessary war, he does it in such a crude and destructive way that he fuels conflict instead of ending it. Trump will sometimes echo rhetoric that critics of endless wars use, but he doesn’t follow through on it and doesn’t understand the implications of it. Occasionally, he will start to lurch away from the wars he inherited, but he ends up lurching back again just as he has done in Afghanistan and Syria. On those few occasions when it looked as if he might be prepared to withdraw from at least one of our illegal wars overseas, he has reversed himself so quickly that it has appeared to be little more than a feint.

The trouble is that there really is no other side to Trump’s foreign policy in practice. There is just empty talk about “getting out” and “bringing our troops home” that he lacks the conviction and discipline to put into action. When Trump has committed to demolishing international agreements, he readily fulfills those pledges because it is an easy, destructive course to take. Exiting from the same wars that he has escalated requires more effort and careful attention than the president can muster. As we judge Trump’s foreign policy by actions rather than words, we can see that there is just a series of failed efforts at bullying and coercion mixed together with sporadic bursts of violence. What we see is the result of what Barry Posen perceptively dubbed illiberal hegemony, in which Trump continues almost all of the same policies in a cruder fashion.

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