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Obstacles For START

Have I overstated Republican hostility to ratifying the new START? Max Bergmann would say yes: With the support of the four fairly moderate Republican Senators from New England – Collins (R-ME), Snowe (R-ME), Gregg (R-NH), Brown (R-MA) – and the two retiring moderates – Voinovich (R-OH) and Bennett (R-UT) – the New START treaty would […]

Have I overstated Republican hostility to ratifying the new START? Max Bergmann would say yes:

With the support of the four fairly moderate Republican Senators from New England – Collins (R-ME), Snowe (R-ME), Gregg (R-NH), Brown (R-MA) – and the two retiring moderates – Voinovich (R-OH) and Bennett (R-UT) – the New START treaty would pass.

Yes, I suppose that’s true, but that would require all these “moderates” to be in support of ratification. Last I checked, Scott Brown has been following the lead of John McCain on national security matters, which makes it far from certain that he would vote to ratify. It is a significant mistake to assume that Republicans that happen to have a reputation for being “moderate” on domestic social or fiscal policy will be reliable yes votes. Bennett has expressed support for the treaty, and Gregg and Voinovich are possible, but Collins has already expressed reservations about the treaty, Brown has echoed Romney talking points on tactical nuclear weapons, and Snowe’s position remains uncertain. The one new Republican who will be serving during the lame-duck session, Mark Kirk, is so far uncommitted either way.

These calculations also take for granted that Democrats can still count on all of their 58 votes during the lame-duck session. The administration may need just six more Republican votes, but it is not at all obvious that the votes are going to be there. That assumes that there will be a vote. For one thing, a debate and vote would eat up a lot of time during the session. As Josh Rogin reported last month, there is some Republican opposition to holding any vote on the treaty during the lame-duck session:

Senior GOP senators, most of who have yet to signal their positions on the treaty, are also making it clear they don’t support voting on New START during the lame duck session. They don’t think there’s enough time, and they still have substantive concerns about it.

This could be a tactic to win more concessions from the administration on modernization funding or other issues, or it could simply be a way to drag out the process until ratification becomes impossible.

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