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New Hampshire Rasmussen Poll Numbers

The latest Rasmussen poll for New Hampshire is interesting for what it tells about the different candidates’ bases of support. The overall numbers have Romney leading with 42%, Paul in second with 18%, and then Santorum and Huntsman at 13% and 12%. Unfortunately, Santorum’s strength is strongest with those who call themselves “very conservative” (27%), […]

The latest Rasmussen poll for New Hampshire is interesting for what it tells about the different candidates’ bases of support. The overall numbers have Romney leading with 42%, Paul in second with 18%, and then Santorum and Huntsman at 13% and 12%. Unfortunately, Santorum’s strength is strongest with those who call themselves “very conservative” (27%), but even among this group he trails Romney by five. Paul receives some support from “very conservative” (17%) and “somewhat” conservative (15%) respondents, but 20% of “other” support him. Huntsman is strongly supported by 24% of “other” (i.e., moderates and liberals) and just 2% of “very conservative” and 9% of “somewhat” conservative respondents.

Among independents, Romney still leads Paul and Huntsman by ten and eleven respectively, and Paul and Huntsman are virtually tied among these respondents. Among Republicans, Romney’s lead is even more commanding at 49% to Santorum’s 16%, followed by Paul and Gingrich at 14% and 10%. At 6%, Huntsman is in fifth. Huntsman has drawn away a lot of moderates and independents that Romney and Paul presumably would have won over, but not enough to get him into the top three, so Huntsman’s main function in the race appears to be to keep Romney and Paul’s results lower than they might have been otherwise. It seems that Romney hasn’t just cobbled together a bunch of former McCain voters, but has significantly expanded his base of support from four years ago without losing very many of his old supporters.

Update: Following up on earlier discussions of Paul’s support among young voters, it’s worth noting that he is just four points behind Romney among 18-39 year olds at 30%. No other candidate breaks into double digits.

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