Obama wins; then faces John McCain in the general election in an epic generational battle between two candidates who are calling the country to a sense of common interest and who are both about bringing the country together across party lines.

Now that would be a campaign worth the price of admission. ~Matthew Dowd

So it would be worthless? 

The least persuasive part of this argument is the claim that the Democratic superdelegates will follow the voters’ preference.  They will not.  They will select whichever candidate they think has the best chance of winning, and unless most of them become badly confused in the next few weeks and months they will understand that the Democrats’ best chance remains Hillary Clinton, as chilling a thought as that is for all of us.  I have seen the national polls, and I have read many anecdotal accounts that seem to say that many people will simply refuse to vote for Clinton, but I have also encountered enough anti-McCain sentiment that it is simply inconceivable that he actually prevails in an election against her.  It will be Clinton v. Dole all over again, perhaps a little closer but with the same outcome.  If it is Obama v. McCain, there will indeed be an “epic generational battle,” and the results might look something like 1972* because most voters who bestir themselves to choose a major party candidate will side with McCain in such a battle.  Those who want to stop McCain from being President have to hope that the Democrats do not take themselves over the cliff with Obama.  Obama’s chances improve if his nomination encourages dissident conservatives and Republicans to throw in their lot with a third party as a protest against McCain, but this seems unlikely.  On the policies that have deeply alienated many on the right from McCain, Obama is certainly no better and his other policies are so costly or overly ambitious that they will drive voters to McCain in spite of McCain’s flaws.  For a short time in November 2006, I allowed myself to indulge in the fantasy that democratic politics occasionally produced modestly decent outcomes, but the last 14 months have again disabused me of that quite transitory illusion. 

Rarely have there ever been two prospective presidential match-ups that inspire more dread in me than these, and never before has the argument to stop legitimising the entire process by not participating in it carried more weight with me.  With these general election candidates, it even seems as if casting a protest vote would be tainted.  This November will be just my third presidential election for which I am eligible, and at present I am not at all inclined to cast a ballot.      

*Okay, so it probably won’t be a 49-state sweep, but it will be lopsided.

Update: I should flesh out a bit more the argument for Obama’s weakness in the general election.  First of all, McCain may be more competitive among Latino voters than other Republicans would have been, and Obama is likely to be weaker with the same voters than Clinton would be.  Whether this can actually tip an otherwise solid Democratic state into the Republican column is hard to say, but it will likely lock down New Mexico and Florida for McCain (it doesn’t help that Obama will not have actively campaigned there during the primary season because of the DNC ban).  Plus, all the military personnel and families who live in those states probably have to make McCain the odds-on favourite there even in a difficult year for the NM Republicans.  The winner in New Mexico almost always prevails nationally (2000 and 1976 are the only exceptions to this of which I am aware), because the candidate who can win New Mexico can appeal to a broad array of interests and demographic groups in sufficient numbers to succeed across the country.  Obama probably cannot minimise the GOP draw among black voters beyond the tiny 8% garnered by Bush in 2000.  The question remains whether Obama’s belated gestures towards protectionism can overcome concerns about his voting record on social issues in key Midwestern states.  Given Pawlenty’s support for McCain and Obama’s win there last week, Minnesota may be shaping up to be a major battleground state along with Ohio and Pennsylvania.  Add to this anxiety about the cost of Obama’s proposed policies, disaffection related to the Muslim rumour and Obama’s background, and qualms about inexperience and you have the recipe for a significant defeat.