Empty Threats

Mr Putin is gambling that Western politicians are too weak and Western investors too greedy to stand up to him. They should prove him wrong.

That requires a show of principle and a change in tactics. The West should recognise that this marks a new, more repressive phase of Mr Putin’s rule, and treat Mr Nemtsov as a prisoner of conscience. America has complained, as have some members of the European Parliament, but European leaders have been shamefully silent. Of course, Russia will continue to reject any protests—as it did over Mr Khodorkovsky’s sentence—but if the Europeans are silent, Mr Putin will assume that they acquiesce. The EU’s interests may differ from America’s in dealing with Russia, but its values do not. Fabricating cases against political opponents is unacceptable whether you are in Paris, Berlin or Washington. If Russia continues to act in this way, it should be chucked out of the G8. ~The Economist

Other than making themselves feel better, what would this harder line from European leaders change in Russia? The answer is nothing. As the leader says, Russia will reject all protests, so it’s not as if a concerted campaign on behalf of Nemtsov is going to lead to significant changes in the Russian government’s conduct at home. Expelling Russia from the G8 would certainly send a message, but it isn’t the one that The Economist thinks will be sent. The message it sends is that the leading industrial powers of the world are prepared to expel one of the world’s major governments from their ranks to protest political conditions that do not deter them from doing considerable business with even more repressive governments in various corners of the world. Attempts to to isolate and punish other governments over their internal behavior tend to go nowhere, as they mostly cut off Westerners from the countries whose governments they are trying to influence, and in the meantime the Russians will cultivate stronger ties with emerging-market countries and rising powers.