Since I have been saying for the last six days that the Palin choice would drag down the ticket, I should acknowledge that this doesn’t seem to be happening so far.  In fact, one post-speech survey showed some important gains for McCain:

After viewing the speech, there is a 9 percent increase in the number of Independents that will “probably’ or “definitely” vote McCain/Palin.

Palin’s speech proved to be equally effective in swaying votes for both men and women.  Among the independents who watched her speech, respondents who report that they will “probably” or “definitely” vote for McCain increased by 10% across both genders, around 38% of female independents and 36% of their male counterparts. 

On the other hand, the GOP does have to contend with those voters (9% overall, 11% of Reps, 10% of conservatives) who say they are unwilling to vote for a woman for President*.  I am assuming this attitude will have some effect on these voters’ willingness to support a ticket that includes a woman as VP.  10% of McCain voters are unwilling to vote for a woman for President, and another 7% are unsure whether they would be willing.  That could help to explain why 9% of Republicans and particularly 16% of conservatives said in another survey that they are less likely to back McCain with Palin as VP.  More likely, however, these are Republicans and conservatives who were already inclined to back Obama–only 3% of McCain backers say they are less likely to vote for McCain because of Palin.  It could be that McCain voters who wouldn’t support a woman for President can rationalize their vote for McCain/Palin by treating the VP choice as trivial or irrelevant, but it seems to me that this may be a real problem for McCain among a significant portion of those who would have otherwise voted for him. 

*In another odd result that pairs up with the surprisingly greater resistance to a black candidate for President among 18-29 year olds that I noted before, 15% of 18-29 year olds are unwilling to vote for a woman for President, which is a higher percentage than any other age group, including 65+.  Whether this is a backlash against enforced diversity and the like, I don’t know, but it is another one of these curious examples of a small but significant group of young voters being more forthright in their opposition to women and minority candidates. 

Update: SUSA has a poll from Washington that gauges respondents’ views on the value of the VP choices, and the results are worth noting.  46% say Biden is an asset, compared to 26% who say he is a liability; for Palin it is much closer at 45% asset, 39% liability.  There are more people undecided about Biden’s impact because they say they do not know enough about him.  That’s a bit ironic, considering how much of a fixture in Washington politics he has been compared to Palin’s obscurity on the national stage.  The media firestorm around Palin has left far fewer people unsure about her, but she still seems to be doing McCain more good than harm.  As you would expect, assessments of VP choices break down predictably along party lines, but pluralities of independents consider both Biden (45%) and Palin (46%) assets.  The key difference is that there are significantly more independents who see Palin as a liability (40%) than view Biden that way (30%).  More important, among independents there are equal numbers of respondents saying that the choice reflects poorly and well on McCain (tied at 43%), while independents think choosing Biden reflects well on Obama by a ten-point margin.  For these Washington voters, the Palin choice seems to be mostly a wash.  Opinions have hardened about Palin and have done so more quickly in just the last few days, no doubt aided by the media obsession with her and her family, which should give Biden more of an opportunity to make a favorable impression at the debate in the fall and gives Palin less margin for error in the coming months.  Not surprisingly, the Palin choice goes over poorly with New Yorkers, who see her as a liability rather than an asset 42-35.  We’ll have to wait for more competitive and representative states to be surveyed before being able to say more about the effect of the choice on the ticket.   

Second Update: This small panel of Michigan voters largely did not respond well to the speech.  Judging from this panel, the speech seems to have gone over particularly poorly with independent and older women.

Third Update: The Free Press panel’s independents were mostly pretty hard-core Obama supporters, so bear that in mind when considering their hostility to Palin’s speech.