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Don’t Repeat the Crimean War

Failing to remember history, President Biden appears condemned to repeat it.
Screen Shot 2022-02-18 at 11.09.07 AM

The last time Western powers engaged in a major military conflict with Russia was the Crimean War from 1853 to 1856, pitting Great Britain, France, and the Islamic Ottoman Turk Empire against Russia. The Western allies achieved victory but nothing meaningful; the war had no impact on the allies’ security or that period’s great power competition. 

Given this precedent, why is the West risking another meaningless war in the same territory? 

The Crimean War was caused by competing claims to protect Christians in the Ottoman Empire and the broader integrity of the Ottoman Empire. In summer 1853, Russia occupied two Ottoman provinces on the Balkan Peninsula, prompting the British and French to ally with the Ottomans. British and French naval forces entered the Black Sea the next January and the two countries declared war on Russia in March 1854.

Military engagements occurred in the Black Sea as well as the Baltics, Caucasus, and Russian Arctic, but the main theater was Crimea in southern Ukraine. After a costly 11-month siege that ended in September 1855, Russia signed a treaty in March 1856 demilitarizing the Black Sea and guaranteeing the integrity of the Ottoman Empire.

As was true in 1853, our current crisis involves Russian forces on the move. The West is once again concerned with the fate of allies in the region, namely the beleaguered democrats leading the pro-Western government in Kyiv. Since becoming independent in 1991, Ukraine has been reliably tied to Russia. However, a pro-Western, pro-democratic revolution in 2014 replaced a Russia-friendly regime with a government seeking tighter integration with Europe, including membership in NATO. Russia vehemently opposed the new government’s efforts and responded by annexing Crimea and militarily supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Today, more than 130,000 Russian troops surround Ukraine, and President Putin has intimated he will use force to ensure Ukraine never joins NATO. Russia has demanded NATO formally rule out membership for Ukraine, but the West has rejected the ultimatum and has instead vowed support for and transferred weapons to Ukraine. Last month, President Biden announced 8,500 troops would prepare for deployment to Eastern Europe, and his national security advisor has warned that a Russian incursion could happen “any day.”

The original anti-Russian Western coalition was an unlikely one considering the extent to which their interests diverged in 1853. Britain and France coveted Ottoman territories just as much as the Russians did. The ad hoc nature of the coalition meant the nominal allies lacked a strategy consisting of agreed-upon military and political objectives for the war, which needlessly prolonged the costly war.

As noted, the original basis for the British and French declarations of war was the Russian occupation of two Ottoman provinces. After four months of fighting, Russia ended its occupation and withdrew its forces. Nevertheless, instead of using the withdrawal to end the war, Britain and France instead opted to continue fighting, seeing the war as an opportunity to weaken Russia’s ability to contest their interests in the region.

One month later, the two allies launched an invasion of southern Ukraine with tens of thousands of men and began the siege of Sebastopol. In the end, the war was a bloodbath and a medical catastrophe—of the approximately 650,000 men who died, only one-fifth did so in battle. The coalition’s fate after the conflict underscored how senseless the war had been—it dissolved just as quickly as it came together and Britain and France soon turned on their one-time Ottoman ally and began claiming its territories for themselves.

Today, the Atlantic Alliance is 72 years old and far more united than the 1854 coalition. Unfortunately, it is just as tenuous. President Biden has sought to reassure allies that “America is back” and the current crisis has provided him with an opportunity to demonstrate this commitment. However, NATO’s European members are very dependent on Russian energy. In particular, Germany has extensive economic linkages to Russia.

If NATO wants to avoid an unnecessary war and its own destruction, it should only undertake a course of action that it unanimously agrees upon, and carefully consider how potential Russian responses will impact alliance-cohesion over time. A tall order, to be sure, but if the crisis worsens, Russia is very likely to retaliate by curtailing energy supplies. Such an interruption would severely test the alliance’s unity. If the crisis persists for several months, the lack of agreed-upon countermeasures could eventually result in separate blocs opting to pursue contradictory aims.

It would be a mistake to assume the alliance would survive a drawn-out military confrontation. International security is predicated on the inviolability of sovereign boundaries, but agreed-upon adjustments occur and do preserve the peace. As the period before and after the Crimean War demonstrated, Europe’s great powers were capable of negotiating comprehensive agreements on major points of contention without resorting to war. Similarly, compare the experiences of Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia in the 1990s.

Ukraine is home to two ethnically and culturally distinct populations. Violence has repeatedly marred the transfer of power between the two. An internationally monitored plebiscite on the country’s future would inevitably reignite heated nationalist passions, but it would be a far more attractive move than a military confrontation, which would only risk major war. Further, acknowledging and accommodating Russia’s genuine security interests would be far more conducive to navigating the current great-power competition than needless bluffing and escalation.

Ultimately, the Crimean War is remembered as the “most unnecessary war in history.” In the aftermath of the disastrous 20-year Afghanistan War, the characterization is equally amusing and cruel, but, failing to remember history, Biden appears tragically condemned to repeat it.

R. Jordan Prescott is a private contractor working in defense and national security since 2002.

 

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