The New Crimean War?
The map above highlights one of the strategic reasons that Russia must hold Crimea. The War Machine is now attempting to manufacture consent for expanded involvement of the United States in the Russia-Ukraine war. Here is Time magazine with an essay by a leading Ukrainian politician, declaring that, in the words of its headline, "The Liberation Of Crimea Is A Must". She concludes her case like this: "We will have to rebuild and make Crimea welcoming, diverse, and free land again." What, not an equitable and inclusive land too? You're slipping, madam.
Washington is reportedly more open to the idea of opening a Crimean front. From the NYT:
After months of discussions with Ukrainian officials, the Biden administration is finally starting to concede that Kyiv may need the power to strike the Russian sanctuary, even if such a move increases the risk of escalation, according to several U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive debate. Crimea, between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, is home to tens of thousands of dug-in Russian troops and numerous Russian military bases.
White House officials insist there is no change in position. Crimea, they say, belongs to Ukraine.
“We have said throughout the war that Crimea is Ukraine, and Ukraine has the right to defend themselves and their sovereign territory in their internationally recognized borders,” said Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the National Security Council.
Privately, military and administration officials had questioned the utility of Ukraine focusing attacks on Crimea, arguing Kyiv’s military had better targets elsewhere on the battlefield.
But the Biden administration has come to believe that if the Ukrainian military can show Russia that its control of Crimea can be threatened, that would strengthen Kyiv’s position in any future negotiations. In addition, fears that the Kremlin would retaliate using a tactical nuclear weapon have dimmed, U.S. officials and experts said — though they cautioned that the risk remained.
Good lord, these fools. The Russian Black Sea fleet is stationed in Sevastopol. Does Washington really believe that it's a good idea to expand the war to a heavily garrisoned territory that is absolutely vital to Russian national security? What insanity! So what if Washington and Kyiv both believe that Crimea really belongs to Ukraine. For Washington to give Ukraine the resources it needs to launch an assault on Crimea would be an extraordinary escalation of the war. Who can predict the outcome of this?
Is this true, what this Congressman says? Maybe.
If Washington makes it feasible for Ukraine to launch an assault on Crimea, and the Sevastopol base, we would be poking the bear. Are we thinking about the consequences? Why, exactly, is it in America's vital national security interests to risk war with nuclear-armed Russia so that Ukraine can reclaim Crimea?
Get weekly emails in your inbox
Is anybody in Washington thinking about this? Or is it all "Putin is bad, therefore whatever we do to fight him is justified"? Yeah, I agree, Putin is bad, and the Russians ought to get out of Ukraine. But the US escalating the war by having its Ukrainian proxies attack Crimea is lunacy.
What does Europe gain from this? I was traveling last week out of Hungary, and heard some angry grumbling from Europeans about how they are sacrificing their own economies for the sake of Washington's war aims. This thing could feasibly break NATO. Many, maybe even most, of us Westerners sympathize with Kyiv overall, but one expects American leaders in Washington to put America's national interests first, not Ukraine's.
The Russian leadership is now signaling that if it should lose the Ukraine war, the world could be looking at nuclear war. Who wants to call their bluff? Late last year, John Mearsheimer said that "we're screwed," because at this point, neither Washington nor Moscow can afford to lose in Ukraine. To extend the war to Crimea, which is only possible with American help, would be a jaw-dropping provocation to Russia, which it could not stand for. Washington is playing with fire.
Subscribe for as little as $5/mo to start commenting on Rod’s blog.