Indeed, this bears out quite well in state polls. One finds that the Southwest and Texas are quite favorably disposed toward immigrants, while the better part of the South is bursting with hostility.

Back in December of 2005, Survey USA tracked views on immigration in all 50 states. In West Virginia, 60 percent of respondents agreed that “immigrants take jobs away from Americans.” The picture was the same throughout most of the South: In Alabama, 56 percent agreed, Arkansas 53 percent, Mississippi 53 percent, South Carolina 53 percent.

Meanwhile, only 33 percent in New Mexico agreed that immigrants take away American jobs. In Arizona it was 42 percent, Colorado 44 percent, Nevada 44 percent and California 30 percent. ~Ryan Sager, RealClearPolitics

Two problems with Sager’s analysis: first, apparently like the poll he is citing, he makes no distinction between the responses from members of different parties, nor is there any distinction between responses from different ethnic groups. Including these details would show that the border states, with their large and growing Hispanic populations, are more sharply divided because of the social and political consequences mass immigration has already been having in these states (New Mexico is a strange outlier for all kinds of reasons, not least of which that it is, on local and state level, a one-party state under the Democrats and has been since the 1920s, but even here local conditions explain these results in terms that have little directly to do with feelings of accommodation with mass immigration).

Second, these responses are to a particular question, “Do immigrants take away jobs from Americans?” This can hardly pinpoint what public opinion on immigration as a whole is in different states. Put in that blunt, simplistic way, some immigration restrictionists might also demur and offer a more qualified answer instead. What the restrictionist would point out is the real effect immigration does have on depressing wages, or any of the host of other costs (fiscal, social, cultural, etc.) attendant on mass arrival of immigrants. What this question does not measure is whether or not people in the border states want border security (the new Democratic House theme this year), which is a theme at least rhetorically promoted by such competitive Hispanic candidates as Patricia Madrid in my own congressional district, and whether they want a suitably effective internal “crackdown” on illegal immigration as well. Framing the issue in such a clumsy or intentionally misleading way, we come away with the impression that the Southwest and West are at peace with the idea of mass immigration and it is only those Southerners who want to cause trouble. Predictably, Andrew Sullivan picks this anti-Southern line up and runs with it.

I cannot speak for folks in Northwest and the Mountain states, but as a Southwesterner it is my firm opinion that border state Republicans are livid about any and all compromises on border security and any proposal of amnesty or anything remotely like it. If border state Democrats are in fact more pro-immigration than the national average (which I have reason to doubt, but it is possible), it is because they stand to benefit most from the surge of new future voters and the attendant demographic changes that suit their party. If Sager were to look at New Mexico party registration numbers, he would find that the percentage who agree that immigrants take jobs away from Americans (33%) would be fairly similar to total GOP registration statewide. According to an article from the Albuquerque Journal prior to the ’04 election:

Among all New Mexico registered voters— including the old and new registrants— 51 percent are Democrats. Thirty-two percent are Republicans, and 14 percent chose no party.

32% are registered Republicans, and 33% of New Mexicans think immigrants take jobs away from Americans–what do you want to bet this is the same third of the state? I suspect the numbers in the other Southwestern states track party affiliation pretty closely, if not exactly. Yet differences of opinion over these particulars aside, the problems of illegal immigration and failed border security are such that even the NM Democratic leadership, never known for visionary or wise government, sees them and has made some effort to pay at least lip service to them. New Mexico is the one state where Democrats generally have no need to take immigration seriously, as their majority in Santa Fe is untouchable, but every Democrat with national aspirations understands the explosive potential of the issue and has to at least be seen handling it. This points to a conclusion exactly opposite that of Sager.

What Sager misses is that Heather Wilson’s vote “against a GOP immigration crackdown bill” may very well be putting her out of sympathy with voters in a state where our Democratic governor, never one to miss a political opportunity, has declared a state of emergency along the border. She had already lost my vote with the war, along with both of my parents’ votes, and I’ll wager she is not doing herself any favours by playing the “moderate” this year. If she works hard enough, she may get to Patricia Madrid’s left on immigration and lose the election.

What Sager also does not tell you, perhaps because he does not know, is that no incumbent Republican has ever lost NM-1 since the seat was created, and no Democrat has ever won that district. Madrid seems poised to make the strongest challenge of any to date, and if she succeeds by tapping into resentment against the local Bush loyalist Heather Wilson will lose her seat for embracing he mi casa es su casa view (it really isn’t fair to this very pleasant phrase of old-fashioned hospitality to associate it with subversion of the law and sovereignty of the U.S., since a hospitable invitation presupposes that the guest will at some point return to his own home).

I believe there are two factors making this election competitive like none before it has been: the war and immigration. And Wilson is swimming against the tide on both, while Madrid seems to be catching the political mood a little bit better. Immigration may be working against the GOP in the border states, but not because the Republicans are taking a hard line on the problem; it is the perception of drift and complete failure to do anything that I think will be killing the GOP in the Southwest.