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Pennsylvania

Clive Crook is talking sense: Also, the Democratic voters most likely to be offended by Mr Obama’s sympathetic account of their errors are the white working class and they were backing Mrs Clinton anyway.  If and when she drops out, they will have to decide whether to vote for Mr Obama or switch to Mr […]

Clive Crook is talking sense:

Also, the Democratic voters most likely to be offended by Mr Obama’s sympathetic account of their errors are the white working class and they were backing Mrs Clinton anyway.  If and when she drops out, they will have to decide whether to vote for Mr Obama or switch to Mr McCain. Only then will we know how they feel about Mr Obama’s lofty take on their beliefs.

Crook’s assessment is backed up by post-“bitter” Rasmussen polling.  The Rasmussen summary from last week said:

Thirty-seven percent (37%) say that the comments reflect an elitist view of small town America. Forty-eight percent (48%) disagree. Most Clinton voters (57%) believe Obama’s comments reflect an elitist view while Obama voters overwhelmingly reject that notion.

This is another way of saying that the reaction to the remarks themselves was probably muted because the people likely to be put off by these remarks were already inclined to oppose Obama, and many of them may have already thought him to be an elitist.  Add the preferred description to account for Clinton’s supporters to see those remarks as elitist: Obama is the “priest,” the “wine track” candidate, the intellectual, process-oriented reformer, the yuppie, and so on.  The reaction probably has been, “Of course Obama is an elitist–tell me something I don’t know!”

The overall poll movement in the past week seems to have been the result of Obama gaining strength in southeastern Pennsylvania, as he consolidated support in Philadelphia and the suburbs, while Clinton has picked up support in central and western PA.  So what seems to have happened is that, far from people “not caring” about the controversy, the controversy (including Clinton’s lame attempts to portray herself as one of the people) has made the race more sharply polarised in the last week than it had been earlier.  That appears to be what the polling companies are saying, including those that are showing a closer statewide race in recent days. 

32% of Democrats in this Suffolk poll say this his remarks show that he is “out of touch” with rural Pennsylvanian values.  Obviously, that’s nowhere near a majority, but if a third of Democrats in the state believe this it is a problem for Obama in the future.  Certainly, it is still hard to measure the intensity of this sentiment, but it definitely exists.  Literally every one of those Democrats could already have been a Clinton supporter, so the backlash would not necessarily register in head-to-head polling between Clinton and Obama. 

Update: Comparing SUSA’s poll from 4/1 and another from today, the different regional reactions are clear: Obama has picked up six points and Clinton has lost five in SE Pennsylvania; Clinton gained four and Obama lost seven in NW Pennsylvania; Obama lost three in the southwest, and Clinton gained two.  It is northeastern Pennsylvania where Clinton apparently collapsed: she led 71-23 three weeks ago, and is now up just 60-37.  Changes in central Pennsylvania, according to SUSA, were minor.

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