In the latest of many gaffe-strewn interviews, she [Segolene Royal] seemed to be blissfully unaware that the Taliban was no longer the official government of Afghanistan. ~Christopher Hitchens

Ms. Royal has been a bit, shall we say, spotty on the campaign trail over the past few months, but with things like this she manages to make Nancy Pelosi look like a savvy foreign policy thinker. 

I have to confess that the French presidential election this time around bores me unusually, even when compared to other uninteresting, predictable European elections of the recent past.  Those who have been following this closely will laugh and say, “This is a very unpredictable race–no one knows what will happen!”  But this isn’t really true. 

It’s true that no one knows who will be the challenger against whom Sarkozy will run in the second round.  It could be Royal, or it could be Le Pen, and it might even be the other guy (who might be winning the all-important Donzy primary in Burgundy), but as we know from the ’02 election it won’t matter much who goes up against Sarkozy, particularly if it is Le Pen.  The Socialists have shown total collapse for the last five years ever since they were knocked out in round one last time, and La France presidente campaign isn’t going to save them.  Bayrou has the novelty factor working in his favour, but has limited party support and doesn’t really tap into the visceral or powerful symbolic issues of the day.  A Sarko-Le Pen showdown could be amusing, if only to see Le Pen take the relatively more pro-Muslim positions of the two of them–what would the multicultis do with that one?  In that event, I look forward to the socialist rallying chants, “Vote for the fascist, not the old fascist!” 

Sarkozy will rally the right around himself if he has to face Royal, who will probably manage to distinguish herself by reenacting the main role of Delacroix’s Liberty Leading The People before it’s all over.  After all, she has shamelessly pandered to every other nationalist symbol she can think of.  If she thought there were enough votes in it, she would probably suggest restoring the Orleanists to the throne, unless that alienated too many of the other monarchists.  In her tawdry flag-waving, Marseillaise-singing and Joan of Arc-loving, she is a bit like Howard Dean with his appeal to Confederate flag owners.  There is nothing wrong with the things she is promoting and embracing (just as there wasn’t actually anything wrong with what Dean proposed), but the lateness and desperation of her embrace have to be embarrassing to the head of her party and father of her children, Francois Hollande.  If Sarko faces Le Pen the entire country (minus 17-18%) will join together in mindless groupthink to “save the Republic” once more.  Of course, the French could surprise us all, but my guess is that the only truly uncertain factor of any interest will be how large Sarkozy’s margin of victory will be and whether that will represent some sort of mandate for his policies.