Germany’s new coalition agreed earlier this month on a military service plan that, starting in 2026, would require all 18-year-old German men to complete a survey indicating whether they are willing and able to serve in the armed forces. Beginning in 2027, Germany will also require those surveyed to undergo a medical screening to evaluate their fitness for service.
According to the governing parties, the aim is to first increase the number of voluntary soldiers. If the survey and benefits increases fail to draw enough voluntary enlistments, the Bundestag may implement a form of lottery-based compulsory service for young German men.
Lawmakers are expected to vote on the legislation in December.
This move is the latest step in a broader European shift toward rearmament that has accelerated since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war and the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House. Trump has repeatedly pressured NATO allies to dramatically increase their military spending, arguing that the United States has shouldered too much of Europe’s defense burden for too long.
The German armed forces, the Bundeswehr, currently has about 182,000 active soldiers. In order to reach their NATO-mandated requirements, they would need to reach 260,000 by 2035, including 200,000 reservists.
At the 2025 NATO Summit in June, leaders agreed to a new goal of each member spending 5 percent of their GDP on “core defence requirements and defence– and security-related spending by 2035.” According to the agreement, at least 3.5 of the 5 percent should be allocated to NATO defense.
While some allies, including Poland and the Baltic states, have moved swiftly to expand defense spending, others have lagged behind. Germany, long criticized for underinvesting in its military despite being Europe’s largest economy, now appears to be changing course.
European confidence in long-term American security guarantees is eroding. Many European leaders fear that Washington may reduce its military commitment to NATO in the coming years, as Trump has previously threatened to withdraw from the alliance altogether. This uncertainty has pushed Berlin toward a more assertive defense posture.
Soon after taking office in May, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he wanted to transform the Bundeswehr into “the strongest conventional army in Europe.”
“This is appropriate for Europe’s most populous and economically powerful country,” Merz said. “Our friends and partners also expect this from us. Indeed, they practically demand it.”
This marks a sharp break from Germany’s postwar identity. Since the end of the Second World War, the Federal Republic of Germany has defined itself through restraint and skepticism towards militarization.
There has been some domestic backlash to the plan. Germany’s youth have emerged as some of the most vocal critics. Many young activists argue that aging political leaders are once again shifting the burdens of their decisions onto a shrinking younger generation. The accusation is blunt—older politicians create the conditions for war, and younger Germans are then forced to fight it. This generational disconnect isn’t only seen in the opposition towards the possibility of conscription, but also in the ongoing youth resistance to pension reforms.
While younger Germans push back against domestic burdens, the country’s political leadership is preparing the public for the possibility of war. German officials increasingly describe the Russia–Ukraine war as an existential conflict for the European continent. Boris Pistorius, the German defense minister, has been direct about the perceived Russian threat.
In a recent interview, Pistorius said, “Putin makes no secret of his imperial fantasies in which our freedom, our order, as we know it, have no meaning. We must respond quickly and clearly to this threat by strengthening our defense capabilities.”
He suggested that Russia would be able to restore its forces enough by 2028 or 2029 so that it would be capable of attacking a NATO country. “Some military historians even think that we have already had a last summer in peace,” Pistorius said.
At the same time, Washington is pursuing another path. The Trump administration has repeatedly floated proposals to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war, and a draft of a negotiated American–Russian peace framework was leaked last week. The 28-point plan was said to have been drafted without the involvement of Ukraine or Europe.
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After a call between European leaders on Friday, a spokesman for Merz said the German leader, along with France’s President Emmanuel Macron and the UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer, reaffirmed “full support on the path to a lasting and just peace” while stressing that any peace deal must protect European and Ukrainian interests.
Though the statement welcomed U.S. efforts to end the war, it made clear that Europe expects a say in any agreement affecting NATO or European security.
Whether Europe ultimately accepts an American-brokered peace or not, Germany is moving on the assumption that war remains a real possibility. A government that increases defense spending and seeks to boost enlistments in the armed forces is not acting as though peace is guaranteed. Germany is no longer betting on diplomacy alone, but on the willingness of its next generation to fight if it must.
