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Nearly Half of Germans Want U.S. Troops Out Anyway

Turns out Trump's decision to bring some American troops home has strong support in certain parts of the country.
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Post-World War II European defense policy could be characterized as a game of musical chairs: where whenever the music stops America never takes away a chair. Until now that is, with President Donald Trump’s announcement of a planned withdrawal of nearly 12,000 U.S. troops from Germany.

This has led to the inevitable chorus of disapproval from Democrats, some establishment Republicans, and former senior military officials. It has also been rebuffed by the political establishment in Germany. The only thing is, according to a YouGov survey, nearly half of the German people seem to agree with President Trump. Not in the sense of accepting his reasoning, as only one in four shares his view that Germany spends too little on defense, while 58 percent disagree. No, rather in the sense of Russia Today’s jeering headline “Off you go, then!”

To see why requires an understanding of the old East/West division that still exists in Germany, an open sore that Trump’s decision brings to international attention.

Trump’s American critics retort that such a move benefits Russia, degrades U.S. national security and military preparedness, costs billions of taxpayer dollars, and undermines U.S. relations with Germany, Europe, and NATO. Thomas Wright, transatlantic relations expert at the Brookings Institution, said “This is all to do with Donald Trump’s deep-seated psychological hostility to Germany in general and Angela Merkel in particular. There’s no strategy.”

The German political establishment agrees, with five of the six parliamentary parties in the Bundestag opposing the troop reduction. Green Party opposition politician Jürgen Trittin, a parliamentary foreign affairs committee member, said the decision is not about military or defense policy; rather, it is part of Trump’s “economic warfare” against the European Union, “especially the Germans.”

America’s military presence in Germany is an artifact of history, following the post-WWII Allied occupation, and has been a dwindling presence. The Germans polled may not like Trump, but they do think on this point it is right for him to act and for America to leave. There are two political parties that also agree with him: Alternative for Germany (AfD) on the “far right” and Die Linke on the “far left.”

There are many suggestions as to why. One is plain old anti-Americanism, but is that really stronger than their anti-Trumpism?  If we dig a little deeper, we might find the answer has a lot to do with Trump’s policy exposing the old East/West sore in Germany which perhaps has never quite gone away.

Yes, the German people believe unification has been better for all, a source of increased nationalist pride, and economically everybody has been better off. Yet a Pew Research report concludes “the perspectives of those in the former West and East still differ in some notable ways.” People in the former West are more satisfied than those in the former East with the way things are going in their country today. People living in the former East are twice as likely as those in the former West to have a favorable opinion of the AfD and of Die Linke. They also hold more negative views toward certain minority groups than people in the former West. The survey interviewed 2,076 people and stated this is representative of the population. However, the research does not indicate whether there is a geographical divide between the old East and West Germany on the withdrawal question, but the political divide certainly suggests there is a problem.

AfD’s election success was most heavily concentrated in the former East Germany territory. Tino Chrupalla, the AfD co-chairman, said the withdrawal plan aligns with his party’s goal of getting Allied troops and American nuclear warheads off German soil, as it “makes Europe a bit more peaceful,” and “can be a signal toward Russia.” Chrupalla’s statement is echoed in Die Linke’s praise for Trump’s decision. Alexander Neu, party member and Bundestag Defense Committee member, called on Trump to take the U.S. out for good. Speaking to Russian news outlet Sputnik, Neu said “Yes, Germany will be ‘punished’ because it doesn’t function 100 percent as the U.S. wants.” He said Die Linke is asking for more ‘punishment,’ meaning a withdrawal of all U.S. troops and nuclear weapons from Germany. The common denominator seems to be Russia, and both parties have close ties to Moscow. Supporters of the withdrawal see Russia as either a good ally for Germany, or part of a balancing act with America which sees Germany as neutral and self-determining.

Many experts and political figures in America believe withdrawing troops helps Russia. A bipartisan group of six senators aim to stop the move by holding back funding to pay for the redeployment. Senator Marco Rubio said, “At a time when the U.S. and our European allies must continue to stand hand in hand in deterring malign influences, it is in our national security interest, as well as in the interest of our allies and partners, to continue our presence in Germany.” Former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney chimed in by tweeting “The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Germany would be a gift to Russia, and that’s the last thing we should do. Not to mention it threatens U.S. national security and undermines our NATO alliance.” 

In taking away the chair in this new game of musical chairs, Trump is forcing Germany to rethink its investment and the role it plays in European defense. Germany needs a new strategy for a new world order. In his last major speech as German foreign minister, Sigmar Gabriel said Europe now needed a common “power project” to avoid it being a “a vegetarian in a world of carnivores.” The 2016 “White Paper on German Security Policy and the Future of the Bundeswehr” restated that cooperation between the EU and NATO is the best way to protect sovereignty for all EU members, but has not been actioned. Trump’s decision may push the EU towards becoming more reliant on the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). If so, as an EU powerhouse, Germany will have to step up and demonstrate leadership and bolster defense autonomy, something they have tended to shun. If critics are sure Trump does not have a strategy, ought they not also ask why Germany never has a strategy?

However manic critics may portray Trump, his tweeting and rhetoric, it is a mistake to ignore that underneath the bluster there does lie a strategy; just not theirs. He repudiates the GOP establishment’s preferred foreign policy of defending American interests whilst attempting to uphold the liberal international order. His administration’s “America First” foreign policy is a response to the historic cost of foreign policy in economic terms and the loss of American lives. It is also a response to changes in the geopolitical order, including the return of the great powers of Russia and China. Like President Nixon, Trump acknowledges in the face of this competition there are limitations to American power. His decision reflects these concerns and seeks to change American engagement with other countries and institutions, leaving other countries to make sovereign decisions about their own values. In this view, America’s interests are served by saving costs, avoiding open-ended interventions, and having a better balanced relationship with allies. 

The German pivot to Russia is something a Biden presidency, should this come to pass, will want to address. There may be agreement with Trump’s decision on troops, but generally Germans trust Putin more than Trump, with only ten percent trusting him compared to between two and three times more of them believing that Putin (and Xi for that matter) would do the right thing regarding world affairs. Will Joe Biden “build back better” the trust? He has already promised a return to transatlantic alliances, as he said at the Munich Security conference last year “we will be back.” U.S. defense officials and experts say any relocation would take years to complete anyway, and a President Biden is sure to reverse the decision.

The question is, though, do the German people want America—at least the America of the past—back? The East German people may not get their wish, but their political leaders will need to deal with the open sore and a people divided over what is best for them and their relationships with Russia, China, and America. Regardless, anti-Russian policies and sanctions do not go down well in Germany. The German people may prefer a future where America is a self-interested and realist actor in a multipolar world, working with strong allies as needed, and one where, when the music stops, America has no chair to take away; though doubtless European leaders will ensure they still get to keep their seat.

Dr. David Cowan is an author and associate lecturer in Law, National University of Ireland Maynooth, and a former Visiting Scholar at Boston College. His books include The Coming Economic Implosion of Saudi Arabia: A Behavioral Perspective and Frank H. Knight: Prophet of Freedom, both published by Palgrave Macmillan.

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