Paul Ryan is getting a rapturous reception — from Republicans, at least — for his plan to balance the federal budget a generation from now. I may be uncharitable, but I have my doubts about Washington’s ability to carry out even a four-year plan, let alone a two-to-four decade one. And as Chris Edwards notes at Cato, Ryan fails to take many obvious steps to reduce federal spending in the short term — “It is disappointing that his plan doesn’t include common sense reforms such raising the retirement age,” Edwards notes. Ryan’s near-term Medicare reductions are “modest,” while “the big savings occur beyond 10 years when his ‘premium support’ reform is fully implemented.” As for paring back our bloated, ineffective defense budget, Ryan goes only as far as President Obama, which is to say, not very far at all.

Ryan skeptics (like me) and enthusiasts alike can benefit from the balanced assessment Jim Antle provides in his recent TAC profile of Ryan:

Ryan calls himself “a second-generation supply-sider”: he shares Kemp’s sunny belief in economic growth and the influence tax rates have on incentives to work, save, and invest, but he rejects the idea that the country can grow its way out of the impending entitlements crisis. Like Kasich, Ryan is a deficit hawk. But aside from an unsuccessful 1995 plan to restrain the growth of Medicare spending, Kasich preferred to swing his budget axe at numerous discretionary programs. Ryan’s Roadmap grabs the “third rails” of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid with reckless abandon.

Kasich was trying to balance the budget within seven years, by 2002. (He helped negotiate a budget deal with Bill Clinton that got the job done five years early, albeit with the assistance of Social Security surpluses and the dot-com boom.) Ryan’s plan—originally unveiled in 2008 but updated last year—doesn’t balance the budget until 2063. [Note: that’s an older plan, not Ryan’s current one, which balances the budget between 2030 and 2040 — DM.] Then again, the annual deficit isn’t Ryan’s main target. The number he focuses on is the total unfunded liabilities of the federal government, a figure that is rising dramatically because the Baby Boomers who were in their peak earning years during the 1990s are now starting to retire.

I’d prefer a Kasich who can make hard decisions now to a Ryan who defers the pain until the hazy future. Ryan is doing what Kasich and co. did not do, however, in tackling entitlements head-on — but then again, as Antle notes, during the Bush years Ryan “not only voted for the Medicare prescription-drug benefit, which added trillions to the program’s unfunded liabilities, but he also brought along other reluctant Republicans. ‘He even enrolled people in Medicare Part D at townhall meetings in his district,’ says a former House colleague.” I’d have an easier time listening to Ryan’s promises if his record did not belie them.