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The Pardon Question

Up at Mecosta two months ago, some of the other participants and I were talking about politics and the subject of Gonzales came up.  Someone asked if I thought Gonzales would remain Attorney General, and I said that I thought he would eventually be gone before the end of the second term.  So far, my […]

Up at Mecosta two months ago, some of the other participants and I were talking about politics and the subject of Gonzales came up.  Someone asked if I thought Gonzales would remain Attorney General, and I said that I thought he would eventually be gone before the end of the second term.  So far, my prediction doesn’t look very good, but I remain convinced that Gonzales’ position is simply untenable and his departure is inevitable.  He will leave office, whether under some pretext of “spending more time with the family” or not, before Mr. Bush.  Crucially, Mr. Bush will not fire him, but Gonzales will nonetheless depart. 

I am equally convinced that Mr. Bush will never pardon Scooter Libby.  Predictions of Bush pardoning Libby make much more intuitive sense, because Bush clearly risks more politically by refusing to pardon Libby than he does by keeping Gonzales.  Bush’s core supporters really want Bush to rescue Libby and drop Gonzales, but they want the former so much more that it isn’t even funny.  That is exactly why I feel confident that Bush will neither fire Gonzales nor pardon Libby, because it seems to me that Mr. Bush no longer really cares, if he ever did, what his core supporters think. 

Additionally, Bush doesn’t pardon many people.  He is famous, or perhaps infamous, for his lack of clemency.  Chalk it up to one final absurdity of the “compassionate conservative” administration that the President’s epithet could easily be the Unmerciful.  In any case, there is a review process that vets cases for possible clemency, and the odds that Libby will be recommended for a pardon are not very good.  If Mr. Bush were going to pardon Libby, he would need such a recommendation to serve as political cover for the decision.  In the absence of such a recommendation, Mr. Bush will not intervene. 

There are three other reasons why he will not pardon Libby.  First of all, Libby is not a member of the Texan inner circle.  I am not kidding.  The Texans who have followed Mr. Bush to Washington have his loyalty, but all other administration officials are potentially expendable.  Second, Mr. Bush has generally shown a willingness to let subordinates twist in the wind and serve as decoys that take most of the attacks from the media and the opposition.  Even when he does not fire them quickly, because of his supposed sense of loyalty, he allows them to take the brunt of the responsibility for things for which he is ultimately responsible.  Finally, the entire Wilson/Plame affair was the result of one of Cheney’s operations gone horribly awry.  For all I know, Mr. Bush may see Libby taking the fall for Cheney’s scheme to be a fitting end to a distraction and embarrassment for his, Bush’s, administration.  If that is right, Cheney’s requests for a pardon, if they have been made, will likely make Mr. Bush even less likely to pardon Libby when all is said and done.

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