My new column for The Week on Iran, Europe, and the U.S. is now online. Among other things, I discuss why the EU oil embargo isn’t going to work:
Europe’s oil embargo will likely have little effect on Iranian regime behavior. Iran expects to be able to offset lost revenues from Europe with new sales to China and other Asian countries that have great demand for energy and do not have the same fixation on the nuclear issue. For its part, China has no interest in cutting itself off from a major energy supplier for the sake of a U.S.-led policy that it doesn’t support. India relies on Iran for over a tenth of its oil supply and it has announced that it will continue to buy from Iran. Japan has been reducing its imports from Iran in recent years, but it still cannot afford to cut itself off from Iranian oil completely, and has requested waivers from the latest round of sanctions.