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Rubio’s Bizarre Campaign Strategy

If the goal is to win the nomination, this is a very strange way to go about it.
marco rubio

There are more reports this week on Rubio’s weirdly lazy campaign for president:

Republican activists — including many who appreciate Rubio’s formidable political gifts and view him as the party’s best hope for beating Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton — say they are alarmed at his seeming disdain for the day-to-day grind of retail politics. Even some staunch supporters are anxious.

Rubio may be assuming that what worked for him in Florida will work again in the early states in the nomination contest. The Post report mentions that “he comes from a huge and diverse state where financial resources and a media presence are the most important ingredients of political success,” so he may think that he doesn’t need to do the legwork that previous successful candidates have done in this process. If that’s the case, he is likely to be in for quite a shock. It’s also possible that Rubio has bought into the fanciful notion that he is in some sense the “real” front-runner and for that reason doesn’t have to do as much to win the nomination as others have had to do in the past. That seems hard to believe, but it might explain why the candidate hasn’t spent much time campaigning in person.

Bloomberg has another story on the senator’s lackadaisical campaign style:

As a result, in New Hampshire, which may be Rubio’s best bet for an early state victory, some Republican voters view him as a man of mystery. Even as he faces fire for missing Senate votes, Rubio has spent less time in the state and has fewer campaign staff and volunteers than some of his rivals.

“It’s a problem for him if he’s not gonna show up here,” said Bill Dunham, 68, of Brentwood, N.H., an undecided voter at a rally for New Jersey Governor Chris Christie on Saturday in Exeter. “Nobody’s ever called me on the phone or emailed me saying Marco Rubio is going to be in Exeter—or somewhere around here. I don’t even know where he is at the moment.”

I have followed presidential politics fairly closely for at least the last sixteen years, and other than Giuliani I can’t recall any candidate attempting to do anything like what Rubio is doing right now. Even the well-funded, presumptive front-runners in previous cycles have put in the time campaigning in these early states because they knew they couldn’t take them for granted. Poorly-funded challengers have tried to make up for their lack of resources by making themselves as available to voters as possible. Some of these may focus on just one state to the exclusion of all others. The latter may not always win, but they usually do better than expected, and sometimes they surprise everyone with a win. No one has been able to have success simply by going through the motions and running ads. If the goal is to win the nomination, this is a very strange way to go about it. The Bloomberg report notes:

Never in the modern nominating contest has a Republican won the nomination after losing both Iowa and New Hampshire. Rudy Giuliani’s once front-running 2008 campaign faded after he failed in the early states. Romney’s 2012 victory in New Hampshire helped him consolidated support and gradually knock off rivals.

“There is no substitute for a good ground game,” said Republican strategist and lobbyist John Feehery.

Even when we grant that this has been a very strange election cycle, that still seems like a safe assumption. Rubio’s weak campaign organization and sporadic appearances in these states are setting him up for a fall.

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