Robert Costa reports that Ron Paul has a decent chance to win the Iowa caucuses:

If Paul wins Iowa, the upset could upend what many politicos say is a two-man race between Gingrich and Romney. According to state GOP insiders, a Paul victory is a real possibility. In background conversations, many say Paul is much stronger than outside observers believe, with deep and wide support among a frustrated electorate. With Herman Cain’s departure from the race, operatives see Paul potentially collecting a quarter of caucus attendees.

Paul has been steadily improving in Iowa and New Hampshire, and he has been in a position to finish in the top three in both states for a long time now. As the field continues to be unsettled by the rise and fall of one anti-Romney after another, Paul has consistently been building his organization and climbing in the polls to become the natural alternative to a Romney coronation.

The logic of rallying around Paul to delay or thwart Romney is clear enough. Repudiating Romney by backing an even more deeply compromised opportunist (Gingrich) would not be much of an achievement. Backing Gingrich would derail one establishment candidate only to raise up another, and it would be to reward someone whose opportunism makes Romney’s recent political career seem deeply principled by comparison. Supporting Paul against Romney is the obvious move for dissatisfied conservatives who want to repudiate Romney’s lack of principle and his ties to party elites.