Just a very quick post on my pre-election predictions, before it gets just absurdly late in the day to even talk about such things:

  • President Obama to win reelection – check
  • 294-244 Electoral College split – too conservative; final map was 332-206
  • Gary Johnson to win under 2% of the popular vote – check (but too conservative – right now, it looks like he won’t crack 1%)
  • Democrats to pick up seats in Massachusetts, Indiana and (functionally) Maine – check
  • Democrats to hold the Montana Senate seat – check
  • Democrats to gain 1 seat in the Senate – too conservative; by holding North Dakota, they wound up gaining 2 seats
  • Democrats to hold NY-1, NY-21 and NY-27, and to pick up NY-24 – not quite; they lost NY-27
  • Republicans to win the governorship in North Carolina, but to lose in Washington, New Hampshire, and Montana – check

I’m reasonably satisfied with that.