On November 7, 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae uttered a few sentences during a debate on the floor of the parliament in Tokyo. That short set of phrases, regarding contingencies surrounding Taiwan and the possible effects those could have on Japan’s national security, set off a firestorm. Because Takaichi had uttered the words “sonritsu kiki jittai” (state of existential crisis [for Japan])—the magic words that, according to a 2015 legal framework, allow Japan’s Self-Defense Forces to be activated as part of collective self-defense—critics and pundits accused her of shifting Japan, suddenly, onto a war footing. The Chinese media was filled with over-the-top imagery and hyperbolic verbiage about a recrudescence of “Japanese militarism.”
Xue Jian, the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) consul general in Osaka, went on a personal charm offensive in reaction to Takaichi’s comments: He threatened to behead her.
Outrage aside, Takaichi’s comments were speculative, but hardly unfounded. War is in the air out here in East Asia. Invasion, blockade, communication blackouts, and a variety of other scenarios have been floated again and again in media outlets worldwide as tensions among Taiwan, the People’s Republic of China, Japan, the United States, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and other regional actors escalate.
The old order is fading; a new one, unformed, is taking its place. Who will control the South and East China Seas for the rest of the 21st century? As this question comes to a crisis, so too does the threat of all-out war loom ever larger.
Missing from the debates and prognostications about Taiwan and regional security, however, is the group of islands closest to the main island of Taiwan. At just 60 nautical miles off Taiwan’s northeast coast, Yonaguni, the southwesternmost of the Okinawa islands, is much closer to Taipei than to Tokyo. Follow the string of islets further northeast, and you pass Ishigaki and Miyako until you reach Okinawa’s main island. Also in the mix are the Senkakus, a small outcropping of rocks incorporated into Ishigaki City to which the Chinese provocatively sent vessels nearly every day of 2025. In the event of a “Taiwan contingency” between Taiwan and mainland China, Okinawa Prefecture will almost certainly be the first foreign territory to be drawn into the fighting.
Yet almost nobody is asking Okinawans what they think about it.
On Christmas morning, 2025, we traveled to the city of Naha, Okinawa’s prefectural capital, to meet with the governor of Okinawa, Tamaki Denny. Ringed by American bases, Naha and Okinawa more broadly are living testimonies to the battles fought between American and Japanese forces on these islands more than 80 years ago. But Okinawa is, and long has been, on the frontlines of a new war, a century-long conflict between the rising power of China and the waning American empire. We asked Governor Tamaki what Okinawa was doing to prepare for a Taiwan contingency, and how Okinawa, long known as the independent kingdom of the Ryukyus, fits into Tokyo’s nationalist model today.
We open by asking about Takaichi’s comments and how Tamaki, who was reelected as governor in 2022, understands those comments and their effects as the governor of Okinawa.
Tamaki: The Asia-Pacific is in a state of military tension over national security issues. At the same time, however, the United States, Japan, and the People’s Republic of China rely on one another economically. Therefore, the current situation has become more complex. But this is precisely why the government must engage in level-headed, peaceful diplomacy in order to build up a relationship of mutual trust and work together, in good faith, toward a resolution.
Not only for Okinawa, but also for our country of Japan as a whole, the peace and stability of the Asia-Pacific region, including the Taiwan Strait, are of great importance. Also, as it is my responsibility, as Okinawa’s governor, to protect the lives and property of the people of the Prefecture of Okinawa, I strongly believe that a Taiwan contingency should be avoided. I have long been of the position that we must all refrain from moving in that direction, and have been asking the Japanese government to act accordingly.
Have you had any direct discussions with anyone from the American bases on Okinawa about a potential Taiwan contingency?
No, not about a Taiwan contingency in particular, but when I have the opportunity to speak with base-related parties either in public settings or informally, I strive to convey that 80 years ago, during the war, Okinawa experienced unimaginable suffering, and that we must never allow Okinawa to meet the same fate ever again. It is from this position that I encourage the construction of peaceful relationships regarding Taiwan. My stance is to ask, continuously, that the American military remain in close dialogue with the Japanese government and seek a peaceful resolution to Taiwan-related issues.
Some Americans worry that warmongers in Washington are trying to use the Taiwan situation to start a war.
I think there must never be the creation of situations designed to lead to war. So, for instance, when the U.S. military and the Japan Self-Defense Forces do joint training exercises, this could have an undue influence on the wider region. Training at an elevated level could send the wrong message, which must be avoided. Training must be just that, only training, and it must be made clear that joint exercises are not being carried out in anticipation of certain developments or specific situations.
Do the people of Okinawa also feel the heightened tensions over Taiwan?
Yes, in particular, the people of the Sakishima and Miyakojima islands are geographically very near Taiwan and the Chinese mainland, and so are very highly attuned to what is being reported in the news. At the same time, the Japan Coast Guard is operating with calm and resolute professionalism on a regular basis around the Senkaku Islands, protecting the national borders in that area. In that sense, we are not aware of any particular crisis situation existing around the Senkakus. The situation in and around the Senkakus is stable and is being kept so. This is something that should also be conveyed to a wider public.
In early December, the People’s Liberation Army Navy carrier Liaoning transited the Miyako Strait. On two occasions, Chinese J-15 fighters accompanying the carrier locked radar on Japanese F-15 fighters patrolling the area. This would seem to be a destabilizing move by the Chinese.
We in Okinawa Prefecture do not get any information other than what is reported in the news. We attempted to confirm with the Ministry of Defense regarding the carrier and radar lock incidents, but were unable to obtain any information beyond what is in the press. In that sense, I am not in a position to comment on specifics.
However, the radar lock incident is being described by both the Japanese government and the Chinese government in a one-sided way, with each side asserting only its own viewpoints based on its subjective understanding of events. There must be more, and more robust, dialogue along various channels so that mutual understanding can be built up and unexpected incidents prevented.
Some are speaking of a heightened information warfare posture by the PRC, while others dismiss such concerns.
We are aware that, regarding the current round of events, at the level of public discourse, there are many different views in the Chinese media about Okinawa. There will be a variety of aims behind these pronouncements, depending on the pundit or media company. We are continuing to gather information from various media outlets and other sources and will determine carefully what is being said. But our aim is not to clarify the motivations that might lie behind those pronouncements, but rather to understand what kinds of things are being said. However, we in Okinawa Prefecture are not going to change our long-standing positions or take any intentional actions based on what is being discussed in the Chinese media.
Some people in Okinawa with whom we have spoken say that they want the U.S. bases out of Okinawa altogether. Others say they want Okinawa to bear less of the overall burden of having U.S. bases in Japan. In any event, though, it would seem that the voices of the people of Okinawa are not reaching the central government in Tokyo.
There is a variety of views among the people of Okinawa Prefecture about the American bases. The reality is that people who live in the central area of Okinawa island, especially near Futenma [Marine Air Corps Station Futenma] and Kadena [Kadena Air Base], have a different daily experience—for example with the loud noises produced during take-off and landing of aircraft and the pollution of surrounding waters by PFAS released from bases—than do people who live farther away from the bases.
Speaking of Okinawa Prefecture as a whole, I believe that people here wonder why the U.S. bases should be so lopsidedly concentrated in our prefecture, regardless of whether people have a direct or indirect experience of having the bases here. [Okinawa Prefecture hosts some 70 percent of U.S. bases in Japan, despite having less than one percent of Japan’s total population.]
I accept the fact of the U.S.–Japan Alliance and support that alliance. It is in that sense that I say that the U.S.–Japan Alliance is for Japan as a whole to consider, and is not something that Okinawa Prefecture alone should undertake. The U.S.–Japan Alliance is between Japan as a whole and America as a whole. So, the people of Japan, all the people in the country, should be the ones thinking about the alliance and how it should work.
But it is hard to convey to people outside of Okinawa Prefecture the difficulties of dealing with base noise and base-produced pollution, things with which we deal here on a daily basis, precisely because most people outside of Okinawa do not have to think about these things day in and day out. When I give speeches in cities and at universities and so forth in other prefectures outside of Okinawa, I stress that the U.S.–Japan security arrangement is not a burden that Okinawans alone should bear, but is something for everyone in Japan to consider. My hope is that media outlets nationwide will hear what I am saying and help spread the message.
I invite those who hear my words to consider how they would approach the issue of U.S. bases if there was a giant U.S. base right next door to their home, with fighter jets taking off and landing at all hours, or if the military training exercises being carried out in conjunction with U.S. bases nearby were becoming more and more intense and thereby ratcheting up tensions in the surrounding Asian region.
My belief is that the Japanese government should endeavor to provide information to the Japanese public about the U.S.–Japan security arrangement, letting everyone know that Japan’s peace rests on the ongoing efforts of those associated with the alliance. This will lead to better communication with people in other countries, too, helping to convey abroad that we in Japan are not preparing for war. The government must make a concerted effort to let people inside and outside Japan realize that the Japanese government is endeavoring for peace, and is not undertaking exercises and so forth in preparation for war.
The Cold War seems to have ended everywhere but in Okinawa. The National Security Strategy document recently released by the Trump Administration focuses on the Western Hemisphere. Could this be a chance for Okinawa to finally effect the rearrangement of the U.S. base footprint in the prefecture?
We are continuously asking both the Japanese and American governments to relocate US bases away from the densely populated southern and central parts of Okinawa, in accordance with the SACO [Special Action Committee on Okinawa] agreement. I think this broader agreement should be implemented, which includes base realignment beyond moving just the Futenma and Henoko bases. [The SACO agreement was made in late 1995 after three American servicemen raped a young girl on Okinawa, prompting outrage from local citizens. Construction is currently underway for the relocation of Marine Air Corps Station Futenma to a new site in Henoko Bay, Nago City, but local residents are roundly opposed to this plan.]
It was just in the Okinawa papers today that the U.S. Marine Corps had canceled its plans to rearrange its forces on Okinawa. The Camp Blaz Marine Corps Base on Guam was constructed using funds from Japan. The U.S. and Japan agreed that 9,000 Marines would be transferred from Okinawa to Guam, Hawaii, Australia, or Honshu. The funding for Camp Blaz was disbursed from the Japanese side on the understanding that this transfer would take place. I think the realignment of bases must continue on the basis of the SACO agreement and other agreements, not only to reduce the burden borne by the people of Okinawa, but also in order to send a message to the surrounding Asian region that we in Okinawa are in no way hoping to take part in a war.
Washington seems to be preparing to turn Taiwan and surrounding areas into the next Ukraine, starting and prolonging a war of attrition. Many American conservatives are resolutely against this, but there remains much work to do to bring anti-war citizens together across national borders. Do you have anything you would like to say directly to American conservatives in order to help avoid a repeat of the tragedy of Ukraine?
I believe that the significance of the U.S.–Japan alliance in preserving security has been made clear in this region both during and after the Cold War. I think that the United States should work ever more diligently to build up diplomatic relations at a person-to-person and economic level in order to maintain the security preservation aspect of its presence in Asia as well as to show that war can and will be avoided. Japan, for its part, should continuously remind the U.S. that person-to-person diplomacy is the best kind [of state-to-state interaction]. The reason is simple. The closest country to the Asian continent is not America, but Japan.
When Japan thinks about how best to make its position in the Asian region unambivalent, Japan should reflect on its experiences with war and work with the United States to make it known that those experiences should not and must not ever be repeated, that there is no place for ever creating the conditions for such experiences to be revisited. I think from a conservative position, countries should interact with one another on a basis of equality, and governments should not shed the blood of their own people, should never send their people out to be sacrificed for the state. I feel that conservatives in the United States would be open to this way of thinking.
At the same time, that the United States should also commit to helping Asia as a whole build up sound relationships seems to me an idea that would be met with wide agreement with most people in America. It’s a conscientious position that most people will understand, I believe.
Prime Minister Takaichi’s comments about a Taiwan contingency have been covered extensively in the foreign media. However, almost all overseas media reports have focused on political developments on Honshu, and have paid almost no attention to what people in Okinawa think about the prime minister’s comments.
There are many different views about Ryukyuan independence and Ryukyuan ethnic nationality. However, in the prefectural government of Okinawa we have never had a discussion about the definition of Ryukyuan ethnic nationality or Ryukyuan independence. As for me personally, I identify more closely as a Uchinanchuan, a resident of the prefecture of Okinawa, than as a Japanese person. [Uchinanchu is a term used by Okinawans to refer to themselves as a cultural and ethnic group distinct from the Yamato people in the main Japanese islands.]
The nature, culture, history, traditions, and human feelings of Okinawa—these are, for me, the most important elements of my identity. In a general, comprehensive sense, the most important task facing us in the Okinawa government is how to have Okinawa, the prefecture inside of Japan that is southernmost, comprising outlying islands, and geographically closest to the Asian mainland, make a significant contribution to the national interest of Japan.
In the main islands of Japan now, there are big questions about how to handle foreign immigrants. We have many people from overseas in Okinawa too, people learning skills at Japanese companies, but I am unaware of any problems that they are causing. If so, Okinawa can build a supportive, thriving community where foreigners in Japan learning job skills can live and work in peace. As Japan’s society ages and fewer and fewer children are being born, the question of welcoming immigrants is coming more and more to the fore, but Okinawa can be the most suitable place where communities of foreigners can be formed, communities that are open to interaction with surrounding Japanese communities. Okinawa Prefecture can be a place where the prosperity of Japan and the effective employment of workers can be put into practice.
Also, because people from surrounding countries are in Okinawa working and learning, it becomes known throughout the region that Okinawa is not an enemy, and thus regional diplomacy, good relations with surrounding countries, can be effected. This is our abiding diplomatic role as Okinawans. We must be grateful to those who have come here to work, and should be as hospitable as we possibly can be in welcoming them. This is one obvious way to overcome feelings of hostility and show that we in Okinawa are not anyone’s enemy. This kind of inclusion and tolerance have been built up in Japanese culture over the centuries. The Japanese people remain fully capable of putting these traits into action in interacting with people from other countries.
Is the spirit of hospitality you mention not at odds with the U.S. bases on Okinawa, which are here in preparation for war?
Militarily speaking, in order to balance out military power one side must constantly strive to develop and obtain that which the other side does not possess, while also rushing to catch up by getting what the other side already has. This is simply the nature of militaries. But one way of bringing peace to a region is by inviting a counterpart to think carefully about what would happen if a certain implement were to be deployed.
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Helping one another see things from various standpoints is a multifaceted approach that goes beyond the binary competition model I just described.… Japan should adopt an ASEAN model and deal, not one-on-one with South Korea, or China, or other states with which our relations are perhaps not now as good as they could be, but rather as part of a regional community of nations. Japan should work towards this communal, regional engagement.
I would ask that the United States not become unnecessarily implicated in things such as the independence of Taiwan or possible Taiwan contingencies. Maintain the One China Policy, leave Chinese affairs to China, and, as a result, avoid having to build up restraint against China needlessly, provoking a situation where no need to do so exists.
To lead with the military leaves no choice but for power to meet power in a clash. This is not at all conducive to citizens’ living in safety and peace. We all know that what results from this kind of power-on-power clashing is what we have seen in Ukraine and Gaza and elsewhere. This is one reality, but my unswerving position is that we must bring another, better reality to bear on this kind of thinking.
