Iraq is not Spain in the 1930s or America in the 1860s, but whether the phrase “civil war” is to be used is irrelevant. The relevant question is, can we still win, meaning can we leave behind a functioning, self-sustaining, Western-friendly constitutional government? ~Charles Krauthammer, The Washington Post

In an article entitled (I kid you not), “Iraq: A Civil War We Can Still Win” (how do you win a civil war in someone else’s country?) Krauthammer poses this question to us.  And the answer is today the same answer that you would have had if you asked the question four years ago, before the war ever started: no, we cannot.  Why?  Because the chances of leaving behind a “functioning, self-sustaining, Western-friendly constitutional government” were always somewhere between nil and zero. 

This is not a frivolous answer or one that comes only from the wisdom of hindsight: people who knew what they were talking about doubted that this was ever possible from the get-go, and they were routinely ignored or mocked as apologists for despotism and worse.  People who didn’t understand that supported the war; people who still don’t understand that still support the war and will keep on supporting it forever. 

This is why the public should not listen to people who cannot fathom that it is not possible to create a “functioning, self-sustaining, Western-friendly constitutional government” in Iraq.  We could, I suppose, dispute whether it ever was remotely possible, if everything had gone right and if the planning had been much, much better, but if we are talking about the way things are now it seems hard to deny that it is no longer possible.  The odds were always around 10,000 to 1, and have since become worse.  In light of that, leaving Iraq to its unfortunate fate seems the least awful of the possible options.

Later in the article Krauthammer strikes an odd note for him, which makes him sound like all those “appeasers” he has castigated for years:

The vast majority of Sunnis are fighting not for ideology but for a share of power and (oil) money. A deal with them is eminently possible and could co-opt enough Sunnis to greatly shrink the insurgency.

What, make a deal?  Negotiate with terrorists?  Krauthammer clearly doesn’t understand that we are fighting Islamofascistsynidcalistcommunists! 

Unusually for him, this suggestion makes a fair amount of sense, and if it had been tried three years ago it might have worked.  I think we are well beyond the point where these sorts of bribes will accomplish much.  The Iraqi government is, thanks to the wonders of participatory democracy, hostage to Sadr’s goons, and Sadr’s goons are indeed the main problem at the moment.  Should Americans be fighting and dying for Sadr’s right to kill Sunnis?  I think not.  The course of action is clear: a timely, orderly withdrawal from Iraq in short order.  Only those hopelessly inured to this war or incapable of admitting their own arrogant mistakes keep refusing to take that route.