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What The Public Is Saying

If I am reading this new poll correctly, the right direction/wrong track numbers (question 3) have remained at their lowest “right direction” levels in 11 years.   37% still say (question 9) the war in Iraq has been worth fighting, but only 24% “strongly” believe this.  With some fluctuations back and forth, this is roughly the same level of support that […]

If I am reading this new poll correctly, the right direction/wrong track numbers (question 3) have remained at their lowest “right direction” levels in 11 years.   37% still say (question 9) the war in Iraq has been worth fighting, but only 24% “strongly” believe this.  With some fluctuations back and forth, this is roughly the same level of support that could be found last year at this time.  It may be worth noting that there has not been a majority holding this position since September 2004.  55% want U.S. forces in Iraq decreased, but among those who want the numbers decreased only 27% support immediate withdrawal.  That seems to me a shockingly low percentage in favour of backing immediate withdrawal, considering the relatively high levels of discontent with the war.  32% believe that the U.S. is making significant progress in Iraq, which is 16 points lower than late June 2006.  Obviously, the bottom dropped out in the last year.  39% think the “surge” will improve matters in Iraq.  Only 37% believe Iraq must be won for the U.S. to prevail in the “war on terror.” 

The response to question 45 is amazing.  Asked of “leaned Republicans” whether Bush is leading the GOP in the right direction or the wrong direction 65% still say he is leading the party in the right direction.  There is no hope for a party base this out of it.  Sorry, folks.  Curiously, conservative self-identification is up to its highest level in months (37%), matching or beating results from last summer.  The support for Bush’s party leadership helps to explain why most of the GOP presidential candidates are not heading off in bold new directions.  They find themselves confronted with core constituencies that apparently think Mr. Bush has been good for the Republican Party and is doing the right sorts of things for that party, so they have to play along.  It is basically inexplicable why all these Republicans think this, but there you have it.

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