Equally, “constructing” a “narrative” of Obama as a “lightweight celebrity” was a strategy that depended upon Obama showing himself to be nothing more than a lightweight celebrity candidate. But what if he showed more than that? What would the McCain campaign do then? In other words, McCain’s strategy depended upon Obama failing, not McCain succeeding. As such it was vulnerable. Indeed, it was predicated upon an analysis that was not the GOP’s to control. ~Alex Massie

This is an important point.  There is a basic rule in any competition, and elections are no different.  If you assume that all you really need do is show up and wait for the other side to fail, you will lose and probably quite embarrassingly at that.  McCain never made the case for himself, because he assumed that he would be the default winner once the public decided Obama was unprepared.  Whether or not Obama is unprepared by some standards is not the point.  Relative to McCain, he has shown himself to be fairly masterful while his opponent blunders and lurches.  Despite having every advantage in the political conditions this year, Obama has not taken those advantages for granted nearly as much as he could have done.  The post-nomination pandering and position-switching, all of which now seems to have been quite unnecessary, were part of a steady, cautious effort to appear cautious and steady, which gave calls for undefined change a reassuring rather than an unsettling quality and negated McCain’s efforts to portray him as reckless and unready.       

What is striking about McCain’s failure is how irrational it was to approach an election this way amid conditions that everyone acknowledged to be very good for Democrats.  It might make sense to coast along on biography and belittling your opponent’s readiness and depth in a year when you have the wind at your back, a coherent message and a party label that is not radioactive, but McCain had none of these advantages.  Gordon Brown, a similarly doomed political figure, also likes the refrain “it’s no time for a novice” as a dig against Cameron, but after years of failure by the experienced politicians you would naturally think this is precisely the time for some new blood.  McCain supporters are always dwelling on Obama’s inexperience.  This would be fair enough, but we see now that it isn’t very smart, because each time this charge is made people are reminded that he hasn’t been in Washington very long, to which the ordinary sane response is to say, “Excellent.”   

As for being ambushed, as Gerson puts it, no one put a gun to McCain’s head and demanded that he talk senselessly about earmark reform and the “surge” for half of the campaign.  No one forced him to have no message beyond calls for generic reform against stereotypical corruption.  The lack of policy detail, indeed lack of policy knowledge, the ad hoc, day-by-day planning, the utter disorganization in the campaign, the obsession with scoring tactical victories, and the endless sanctimony, all of which have crippled the McCain campaign’s ability to communicate a consistent, clear argument for his candidacy and build a successful “ground game,” are all reflections of who McCain is.  Let’s also remember that if McCain had been allowed his true desire, he apparently would have chosen Lieberman as a running mate, which would have been the single greatest act of political self-immolation ever.  When choosing Sarah Palin is the smart, safe alternative, there is something fundamentally screwy in the candidate’s ability to make decisions. 

Perhaps most remarkable about the attempt to potray Obama as a lightweight celebrity is how true of McCain that description now seems to be.

P.S.  As Mr. Massie noted, playing not to lose had worked for McCain in the primaries against other Republicans, which I think ought to lead us to render a pretty harsh assessment of the weakness of the GOP primary field.  McCain has demonstrated over the last almost two years that his main qualities are persistence and an ability to surprise.  Had his most capable opponent, Huckabee, ever had any resources, McCain would have lost, and had Romney been even remotely credible he would have wiped the floor with McCain.  As it was, McCain managed to hold off Huckabee, whose campaign structure was not so much disorganized as non-existent, and just barely edged out Romney and his millions in Florida.  Once he had a politically talented, reasonably well-informed and well-funded candidate, as he would have had in either eventual Democratic nominee, the writing was on the wall and McCain was definitely found wanting.