One of the odder arguments in the Cuba debate this week is that Obama has provided a “gift” to Marco Rubio. Seth Mandel offers one version of this claim:

Republicans should not underestimate how much this helps Rubio maintain a high profile in opposition to Obama. The president has two years left, and for those two years Rubio will be the most important figure standing between Obama and a yet another of his capitulations to foreign dictators. Even if Rubio doesn’t run for president, he will establish his power base in the Senate and put himself in line to set the GOP’s congressional tone on foreign policy.

Rogin and Lake make a similar case:

With former Florida governor Jeb Bush announcing his plans yesterday to at least consider running in 2016, Rubio may find himself looking to cement his legacy as a senator instead of campaigning for the White House. To be remembered as the man who stopped Obama from lifting the embargo on Cuba might be tempting.

This might make sense if Obama’s change in policy were wildly unpopular, but there is no reason to think that it is. It’s hard to see how Rubio benefits by becoming the leading opponent of a policy change that most Americans, most Floridians, and most Cuban-American Floridians support. He will win more applause from other hard-liners in his party, but that’s not something that a candidate running for re-election in a “swing” state normally wants. If it has an effect, it probably does more to hurt him in Florida, especially because of the positive effects that restored relations will likely have on Florida.

I fail to see how becoming the leading defender of an outdated and failed policy that most of his constituents reject improves Rubio’s chances of re-election. Yes, it raises Rubio’s national profile and it will get him a lot more attention in the coming year, but it’s not clear that Rubio benefits from being identified primarily with his hard-line foreign policy views. It is conceivable that Rubio could end up losing his Senate re-election bid because he becomes so closely identified with trying to block a change in policy that most people in his state say they want.