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Confrontation Can’t Be Avoided By Actively Seeking It

The Economist wants to confront Russia now: The West has seen Russia brush off its threats and warnings. It looks feeble and divided. Yet, after the destabilisation of eastern Ukraine, even doves should grasp that the best chance of stability lies in standing up to Mr Putin, because firmness today is the way to avoid […]

The Economist wants to confront Russia now:

The West has seen Russia brush off its threats and warnings. It looks feeble and divided. Yet, after the destabilisation of eastern Ukraine, even doves should grasp that the best chance of stability lies in standing up to Mr Putin, because firmness today is the way to avoid confrontation later.

It sounds superficially plausible that “firmness” now will help avoid confrontation later, but it’s not true. All that this is saying is that they would prefer that Western governments escalate the crisis sooner rather than later. There is no particular reason to think that Russia will respond to such “firmness” in the way that hawks expect, and imposing stronger measures now could trigger an even more drastic and unwelcome Russian response. Western governments could do everything that is demanded in the editorial from military exercises to severe financial sanctions, and it would in all likelihood have no effect on Russian behavior. Taking a hard line with Russia is practically guaranteed to result in more hostility and provocative action. That would also leave Western governments with no realistic options for responding to further Russian interference, and it would also expose them to Russian retaliatory measures whose costs most Western governments and electorates are not prepared to bear. In short, the argument for more “firmness” is that Western nations should be willing to bear significant costs to pursue a strategy that will very likely fail on its own terms. It should come as no surprise that there are hardly any governments that accept this argument.

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