In at least two states, Libertarian Party candidates might. I don’t expect LP presidential nominee Bob Barr will pull enough votes away from McCain in his native Georgia to swing the state to Obama, but the Libertarian running for Senate, Allen Buckley, might have enough traction to prevent Saxby Chambliss from getting to 50 percent — which would trigger a runoff. Given the massive discontent in Georgia with Chambliss’s vote for the bailout, Republican defections to Buckley might even throw the race to Democrat Jim Martin outright.

Meanwhile, Libertarian Christopher Cole in North Carolina has been polling between 4-7 percent (though lower in some surveys) in the Dole-Hagan Senate race. With Dole already trailing Hagan, any votes Cole can draw from the Republican makes a Democratic victory that much more certain. I’m guessing Dole’s last-ditch ads smearing Hagan as an atheist won’t help her win back any votes Cole is taking.

But do votes for Libertarian candidates really come at the expense of the GOP? Most people who are inclined to vote third party might otherwise be inclined to stay home rather than vote for the majors — but this year especially, with small-l libertarians and small-government conservatives thoroughly disillusioned with the GOP, the LP ought to be able to profit from the Republicans’ misfortunes. We’ll see.