I’ve raised the possibility of a pre-election U.S. and/or Israeli strike against Iran a while ago in, among other places, TAC (Osirak Redux?An Israeli strike on Iran would pin the U.S. down in Iraq and resuscitate the neocons), the Nieman Watchdog (A pre-election attack on Iran remains a possibility), the Asia Times (Forget about war with Iran?) and the Right Web (Expanding the War to Iran: Another “Urban Legend?). But notwithstanding reports like this and this suggesting that that could happen, I’ve become more of a skeptic on this issue.

I don’t doubt that both President Buscheney and the Israelis would like to destroy Iran’s capability to develop nuclear military power or just remove the smirk off this guy’s face and asap and restore the balance of power in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East that have tilted in Iran’s direction thanks to President Buscheney’s Iraq War. But I don’t believe that they are ready with a concrete plan and a specific date to do that. The two main reasons for the hesitancy are the opposition from the military and entire national security bureaucracy (whose members have the power to torpedo any plan to attack Iran) and the threat to the U.S. and global economy (if oil prices rise to the stratophere).

Now…while many military confrontations have been the result of the execution of military plans by “rational actors” (the attacks by Germany and Japan in WWII; the Arab attack against Israel in 1973; the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003) many are the outcomes of a muddling-through process and unforeseen “accidents” (WWI is a classic example). So I don’t exclude the possibility that either Buscheney and/or the Israelis will try to exploit an opportunity to strike against Iran if such an opportunity will show-up before November. But I think that the chances for that are low at this point.