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Politics Foreign Affairs Culture Fellows Program

The Barr Effect

Noah Millman and Ross Douthat disagree on how much of an effect Barr is likely to have on the general election. Douthat thinks he’ll do as well as Pat Buchanan in 2000 — by which he means, not well at all. (Aw, come on, what about those Buchanan voters in Palm Beach who almost determined […]

Noah Millman and Ross Douthat disagree on how much of an effect Barr is likely to have on the general election. Douthat thinks he’ll do as well as Pat Buchanan in 2000 — by which he means, not well at all. (Aw, come on, what about those Buchanan voters in Palm Beach who almost determined the election? No?) Millman is a believer abornin’ and lists eight reasons why the “Barr-acuda” might have a big bite.

I’m pretty skeptical of Millman’s first point, which is that Barr will draw regular Republicans away from McCain but will only appeal to Democrats who don’t normally vote Democratic — Zell Miller types, perhaps. As I’ve argued before, however, I think Barr might siphon Republicans away from Obama, whose appeal to disaffected GOP voters is very real. Barr won’t exert a pull on the left-leaning Obamacans, but if there are significant numbers of right-leaning Obamacans whose top issues are war and civil liberties, Barr will provide them with an alternate outlet, at the very least.

But it all depends upon where and on what issues Barr campaigns. Millman points out that Barr could put Georgia, an otherwise safe Republican state, into play. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution backs up the point: Barr is already at 8 percent in Georgia, just on the strength of his home-state reputation. If he were actually to campaign there, and to target McCain rather than Obama, he could make the state competitive. I don’t think the rest of the South will go for Barr (unless he runs as some kind of hard-right Jacksonian libertarian after getting the LP nomination), but Barr could have an effect in the semi-libertarian West, particular on Nevada and New Mexico. If Republicans in those states are as libertarian-minded as they’re cracked up to be, Barr could inflict some real damage on McCain.

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