It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…

The events in Egypt and across the Middle East are the most stunning popular uprisings in half a century or more. They have the potential to radically transform what has been a consistent policy of injustice towards the region from the world’s sole hegemonic power, and reform respective governments towards more decent, human rights-based democracies. It is remarkable history.

At the same time, while mass consciousness is enraptured by such events, America’s heel is as heavy as ever over the throats of the Afghan people. The noose may be loosening over North Africa and the Middle East, but on the periphery in Afghanistan it is tightening. According to this report from the Afghan Rights Monitor (via Rethink Afghanistan):

Almost everything related to the war surged in 2010: the combined numbers of Afghan and foreign forces surpassed 350,000; security incidents mounted to over 100 per week; more fighters from all warring side were killed; and the number of civilian people killed, wounded and displaced hit record levels.

…From 1 January to 31 December 2010, at least 2,421 civilian Afghans were killed and over 3,270 were injured in conflict-related security incidents across Afghanistan. This means everyday 6-7 noncombatants were killed and 8-9 were wounded in the war.

…In addition to civilian casualties, hundreds of thousands of people were affected in various ways by the intensified armed violence in Afghanistan in 2010. Tens of thousands of people were forced out of their homes or deprived of healthcare and education services and livelihood opportunities due to the continuation of war in their home areas.

The plan to disrupt, dismantle, and destroy al-Qaeda with a coalition of over 350,000 forces, the ever-swelling nature of U.S. military establishments, and immeasurable costs to blood and treasure was defective to begin with, and is continuing to prove so.  As Robert Pape argues in his new book Cutting the Fuse, the numbers (and the logic) reveal that U.S. military occupation and aggression overseas is precisely what intensifies terrorism and insurgency. Our strategy is self-defeating in the long-term.

And despite the flowery optimism on the part of the political elite, people closely involved in the Afghan war privately speak the truth about its prospects (as well as its lengthy continuance). Retired military officer Matthew Hoh recently published an anonymous email from his friend in the Army:

what rational person would still cling to the hope that we can win politically and/or militarily when the deck is so profoundly stacked against us? the enemy, who Phoenix-like rose from almost complete annihilation after early 2002 to the height of their power today – despite the ‘surge’ of 40,000 additional NATO combat troops – has every logical reason to have optimism for ultimate success, as they’ve not simply weathered the storm of the best we have to throw, but actually managed to increase their effectiveness. by every measurable metric, the TB has risen in power six consecutive years, irrespective of how many western troops we added, strategies adopted, or new commanding generals we hired; no detectable alteration in their ascent…meanwhile, the Afghan government at virtually every level that matters has changed nothing of their character and are as corrupt today as they were in 2002 when they started; no detectable alteration.

Generations of Egyptians have been suffering due to the decrees of the U.S. foreign policy elite, empowering thuggish dictators so as to render obedience. This has reverberations throughout the region that go beyond the related suffering of the Palestinians. That these recent uprisings might mean an end to that mainstay is spectacular. But it by no means signals the end is near for America’s blundering efforts abroad. One can only hope.