fbpx
Politics Foreign Affairs Culture Fellows Program

Super Tuesday Predictions

A near-sweep by Trump of the states in contention, and a more modest lead in the delegate haul.
super tuesday

Predicting the future is a mug’s game. But the election is today – so I’m technically predicting the present!

Alabama: In the most recent Alabama polls from late-February, Trump has polled at one side or the other of 40%, with his nearest rivals, Rubio and Cruz, polling one side or the other of 20%. Since then, the endorsement of Senator Sessions is the main news – and that news helps Trump and hurts Cruz. Alabama has a 20% threshold for receiving delegates, and delegates are allocated proportionately within each district and statewide. Cruz was polling below 20% before Sessions’s endorsement of Trump, so there’s a very good chance he comes in below 20% statewide, which would lock him out of at-large delegates, and give Trump a significant boost. Neither Carson nor Kasich are very likely to get any delegates at all. Assuming Trump’s performance is in-line with pre-election polling, and that his performance is fairly uniform across the state, I’d predict the following:

Vote split: Trump 42%, Rubio 22%, Cruz: 17%, Carson 11%, Kasich 8%.
Delegate split: Trump 28, Rubio 15, Cruz 4, Carson 0, Kasich 0, RNC 3

Trump wins a majority of the bound delegates out of Alabama.

Alaska: Alaska has barely been polled – just one poll from mid-January that had Trump barely ahead of Cruz and Rubio and Kasich virtual non-factors. Obviously, a great deal has changed since then – but how that change has played out in Alaska is hard to know. Looking at other states is of limited value, because the best points of comparison – Colorado or Montana – have been polled even less than Alaska has. My gut feeling is that three factors will help Trump: first, Cruz has been fading across the board since South Carolina, so he should be fading in Alaska as well; second, Alaska’s polls won’t close until 1am eastern time, by which point it should be clear that Trump has had a very good day, and that could demoralize non-Trump voters; and third, Alaska allows already-registered voters to register as Republicans when they arrive to vote, which facilitates non-traditional voters participating, and in past contests such voters have favored Trump. On the other hand, Trump was endorsed by Sarah Palin, and that can’t have helped in Alaska where they know her best.

Vote split: Trump 31%, Cruz 28%, Rubio 24%, Carson 10%, Kasich 7%.
Delegate split: Trump 9, Cruz 7, Rubio 6, Carson 0, Kasich 0, RNC 3

Trump wins a plurality of the bound delegates out of Alaska.

Arkansas: Arkansas also hasn’t been polled lately – the last poll, from early February, showed Cruz with a narrow lead. But since then Trump has had significant victories, Cruz has faded, and if we look at somewhat comparable states like Kentucky, Georgia and Tennessee, Trump is polling stronger than he was in those states at the time of the last Arkansas poll. With a 15% threshold for receiving delegates, there should be a close three-way split of the at-large delegates, and the district delegates should split 2-1 between the winner and second-place finisher in each district.

Vote split: Trump 31%, Cruz 28%, Rubio: 24%, Carson 10%, Kasich 7%.
Delegate split: Trump 17, Cruz 11, Rubio 9, Carson 0, Kasich 0, RNC 3

Trump wins a plurality of the bound delegates out of Arkansas.

Georgia: The second-biggest prize of the day has also featured some of the fiercest competition between all five candidates. But there’s also been a lot of polling – and it all shows Trump with a substantial lead, somewhere between where he ended up in South Carolina and where he ended up in Nevada, with Cruz and Rubio fighting it out for a distant second. Like Alabama, there’s a 20% threshold for inclusion, and districts split their delegates 2-1 between the first- and second-place finisher. But recent polling shows Cruz in the low-20s, so I think there’s a better chance he clears the threshold, leaving Trump with only a plurality of the at-large delegates. Moreover, unlike Alabama, Georgia has a large urban center where I’d expect Rubio to do well – and potentially even to beat Trump in a few districts. By contrast, I think Cruz will have trouble winning any districts – but should beat Rubio for second in a bunch.

Vote split: Trump 38%, Rubio 26%, Cruz 21%, Kasich 8%, Carson 7%.
Delegate split: Trump 35, Rubio 21, Cruz 17, Kasich 0, Carson 0, RNC 3

Trump wins a plurality of the bound delegates out of Georgia.

Massachusetts: Based on recent polling, Trump should utterly dominate Massachusetts. However, because Massachusetts allocates delegates proportionally based on the statewide vote, with only a 5% threshold for inclusion, there’s a good chance that he doesn’t win a majority of the delegates even if his vote total is in the 40s. The secondary question out of Massachusetts is whether Kasich can outperform, putting meaningful distance between his total and Rubio’s. Based on recent polls, it doesn’t look like it, and I don’t think he will.

Vote split: Trump 48%, Rubio 20%, Kasich 16%, Cruz 12%, Carson 3%.
Delegate split: Trump 19, Rubio 8, Kasich 7, Cruz 5, Carson 0, RNC 3

Trump wins a plurality of the bound delegates out of Massachusetts.

Minnesota: I argued yesterday that Minnesota is a must-win state for Rubio. Within the Midwest, Trump polls best in rust-belt states like Michigan; he polls worst in states with a more Western flavor. Minnesota, like Iowa, has a highly polarized electorate, with a more-conservative GOP and a more liberal Democratic party; like Iowa, the GOP electorate is more-religious, more prosperous, and less-driven by racial animus. Rubio should be able to win here, if he can win anywhere. And he was actually leading in the last poll of the state (in January). Since then, Rubio has clearly emerged as the leading establishment alternative to Trump, and has won multiple endorsements in the state. But: since then Kasich has also finally emerged as a factor, Cruz’s star has faded, and Trump has won three impressive victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. I wish there were recent polling of the state on which to base an opinion. The best I can do, though, is to look at neighboring Wisconsin, which was polled around the same time as Minnesota’s last poll, but which has also been polled in February. And in Wisconsin, Trump has gained since January, as has Kasich – but so, more modestly, have Rubio and Cruz. In the Wisconsin poll from January, Trump led by 6 points; in the more recent poll, he leads by 10. If there’s been similar movement in Minnesota, this will be a very close 3-way race. Minnesota allocates its delegates proportionally, with a 10% threshold, so a subsidiary question is whether Kasich and/or Carson clear that threshold to get any delegates.

Vote split: Trump 28%, Rubio 26%, Cruz 25%, Kasich 11%, Carson 10%.
Delegate split: Trump 10, Rubio 9, Cruz 9, Kasich 4, Carson 3, RNC 3

Trump wins a plurality of the bound delegates out of Minnesota.

Oklahoma: This state should be fertile territory for both Rubio and Cruz. But there’s no sign in recent polls that either has been able to break out of the low-20s, nor make a dent in Trump’s low-to-mid-30s numbers. I’ll give Rubio the benefit of a few points increase because he’s managed the end well in other states where he’s campaigned heavily, but unless he has a surge comparable to Iowa, he should fall short. Oklahoma’s delegate allocation system, however, virtually guarantees a fairly even split of delegates, because in each district the top three candidates who earn above 15% of the vote get 1 delegate each.

Vote split: Trump 34%, Rubio 27%, Cruz 24%, Carson 8%, Kasich 7%.
Delegate split: Trump 15, Rubio 13, Cruz 12, Carson 0, Kasich 0, RNC 3

Trump wins a plurality of the bound delegates out of Oklahoma.

Tennessee: You’d think the state with the third-largest delegate prize on Super Tuesday would have been polled more than once since last November. But at least it was polled in February, and it showed Trump with a commanding lead of 18 points, with Cruz and Rubio fighting a close fight for second place. Assuming that poll is accurate, Trump is in a position to dominate Tennessee, because either Cruz or Rubio could fall below the 20% threshold necessary to earn delegates either at the state or the district level. However, I’m skeptical that Trump is quite so far ahead. Moreover, I’d expect Rubio and Cruz to perform better in different areas of the state, with Rubio doing best in the most prosperous urban and suburban areas.

Vote split: Trump 38%, Cruz 24%, Rubio 23%, Carson 9%, Kasich 6%.
Delegate split: Trump 26, Cruz 15, Rubio 14, Carson 0, Kasich 0, RNC 3

Trump wins a plurality of the bound delegates out of Tennessee.

Texas: The big kahuna of Super Tuesday is a must-win for Ted Cruz – and based on recent polling, he’s in a very good position to claim a victory. The more interesting question is whether Rubio will clear the threshold for getting at-large and district-based delegates. Texas allocates its delegates proportionally, with a 20% threshold for inclusion. Within each district, if at least one candidate clears the 20% threshold, the top candidate earns 2 delegates with second place getting 1. If Cruz leads and Trump comes in second in most districts, Rubio could be almost shut out of the district vote. That’s unlikely – Rubio will probably come in second, or conceivably even win, in some of the more prosperous urban and suburban districts. But it’s a fair bet that he’ll considerably lag his proportion of the vote. Meanwhile, if he gets less than 20% statewide, he’ll be shut out of the at-large delegates. Based on recent polling, that’s a very real possibility – and since I believe Cruz and Rubio are competing for many of the same votes, to the extent that Cruz closes strong in his home state, that hurts Rubio more than it hurts Trump.

Vote split: Cruz 39%, Trump 29%, Rubio 19%, Kasich 7%, Carson 6%.
Delegate split: Cruz 85, Trump 50, Rubio 17, Kasich 0, Carson 0, RNC 3

Cruz wins a majority of the bound delegates out of Texas.

Vermont: There aren’t a lot of delegates at stake – but Vermont could still matter in terms of expectations, and in terms of the game of “getting to eight” (a candidate must win an absolute majority of bound delegates from at least eight states to have his or her name placed in nomination). The latest poll out of Vermont, from mid-February, showed Trump with a double-digit lead and his nearest competitors in the mid-teens. Trump’s hand has only strengthened since then. If Kasich gains among more moderate voters, and Trump makes significant gains, it’s possible that none of Trump’s competitors in the state could crack 20%. In which case, none of them would receive any delegates. And even if one of them did crack 20%, Trump would still garner an absolute majority. I think Kasich is going to fall just short of the threshold, but that Rubio will clear it.

Vote split: Trump 42%, Rubio 24%, Kasich 18%, Cruz 13%, Carson 3%.
Delegate split: Trump 8, Rubio 5, Kasich 0, Cruz 0, Carson 0, RNC 3

Trump wins a majority of the bound delegates out of Vermont.

Virginia: After Minnesota, Virginia should be Rubio’s strongest state. But based on recent polling, he’s far from closing the gap with Trump. He’s gained – but Trump has gained more. I’d expect Rubio to close the gap somewhat through the end of today’s voting, but to a  strong second rather than an outright victory. Because Virginia allocates all of its delegates proportionately to the statewide vote with no threshold for inclusion, it’s extremely unlikely that any candidate wins a majority – nobody is going to “get to eight” through Virginia.

Vote split: Trump 38%, Rubio 27%, Cruz 18%, Kasich 10%, Carson 7%.
Delegate split: Trump 18, Rubio 12, Cruz 8, Kasich 5, Carson 3, RNC 3

Trump wins a plurality of the bound delegates out of Virginia.

Projected delegate hauls:

I haven’t allocated the 3 RNC delegates to any candidate because the rules of how they are allocated seem to vary from state to state, and I just didn’t have time to look them all up. But otherwise, here are my predictions by candidate:

Trump: 235 (40% of total)
Cruz: 173 (29% of total)
Rubio: 129 (22% of total)
Kasich: 16 (3% of total)
Carson: 6 (1% of total)
RNC: 33 (6% of total)

If anything like the above happens, there is no way Cruz is dropping out. Rubio obviously isn’t dropping out. Kasich may argue that he didn’t need to win anything today, and soldier on – or he may bow to increasing pressure and leave. It’s hard to know whether his continued presence splits the establishment vote, or pulls moderate votes of Midwesterners that Trump might win in a three-way contest with Rubio and Cruz. Whether Carson drops out or not, he will not be a factor after today.

Advertisement

Comments

Become a Member today for a growing stake in the conservative movement.
Join here!
Join here