This over: Trump could lose 8 of the next 10 contests, winning only New Jersey and West Virginia, and still be about 300 delegates ahead of Cruz:

Total

Trump

Cruz

Kasich

Indiana

57

9

48

0

Nebraska

36

0

36

0

West Virginia

34

34

0

0

Oregon

28

10

13

5

Washington

44

15

18

11

South Dakota

29

0

29

0

New Mexico

24

8

11

5

New Jersey

51

51

0

0

Montana

27

0

27

0

California

172

51

94

27

TOTAL

502

178

276

48

Current

954

562

153

Grand Total

1132

838

201

Shortfall

105

399

1034

That’s about as bad as it could plausibly get for Trump, and about as good as it could plausibly get for Cruz. Carly Fiorina can’t change that math except at the bare margins. (Though, as I recall from her tenure at HP, math was never her strong suit.)

Meanwhile, Cruz just gave away a bargaining chip that might have been useful for winning over Rubio’s or Kasich’s delegates, which he will absolutely need in the unlikely event that the convention considers turning to him rather than putting Trump over the top (which would be a whole lot easier).

Cruz is by all reports a very clever strategist. I feel like I’m missing something.