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Election Predictions

A year ago, I predicted [1] that President Obama would be reelected for six reasons:

The GOP has gotten pretty solidly behind their nominee, so I didn’t get point #3 quite right, but otherwise that’s all been born out, and my prediction stands.

If forced to pick individual states, I expect Obama to win Ohio, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin handily, and also New Hampshire, Iowa and Virginia by tighter margins, but to lose Florida, Colorado and North Carolina. That’s a 294-244 split in the Electoral College, slightly better than Bush did in 2004.

Other predictions:

Hopefully, we’ll find out tonight whether I’m right.

2 Comments (Open | Close)

2 Comments To "Election Predictions"

#1 Comment By William Dalton On November 6, 2012 @ 3:50 pm

Noah, your prediction is as sound as any I’ve seen, and I can testify you are correct in your comments on events in North Carolina, but if I may be permitted I would reverse your prognosis for Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado. I have no particular reason to say I am more prescient, but if I am correct the day will end with Democrats and Republicans both having tallied 269 electoral votes. Nothing could be a more just than to have this election, in which neither of two men deserve a majority, end in neither gaining one. If either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama is sworn in to hold the Presidency for the next four years, it is only because God is being just to us to give us the leaders we deserve.

#2 Comment By Quartermaster On November 6, 2012 @ 6:05 pm

I hope you are dead wrong. Zer0 was a poor choice in 2008, and an even worse choice now. I hope I’m wrong too, because I think Zer0 will be re-elected. I’m basing my call on the fact the electorate tends to be very stupid. In similar circumstances, the voters returned FDR to office when things were already trending down toward the lowest part of the great depression in 1938. Things then were about as bad as they are now.

I really hope I’m wrong about the electorate this time.