But by far the greatest threat to Nato’s hopes of achieving a decisive breakthrough in the Libyan campaign is the onset of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins in three weeks’ time. During Ramadan, Muslims are obliged to observe a rigorous fast during the hours of daylight and to spend much of their spare time in prayer. When the feast falls at the height of an Arabian summer, it not uncommon for most countries to come to a complete standstill.

Political concerns over repeating the mistakes of the Iraq war have meant that none of the politicians leading the Libyan campaign is prepared to commit ground troops. As a result, this has meant Nato relying increasingly on Libya’s anti-Gaddafi rebels to complete the task of removing the dictator from power. But Nato officials are now concerned that the rebel offensive will effectively grind to a halt at the end of the month as fasting rebel fighters will be in no position to launch a major offensive. ~Con Coughlin

I had seen earlier reports that some NATO officials were concerned about this, but I am skeptical that this will matter as much as Coughlin claims here. Ramadan may bring the rebel advance grinding to a halt, but it isn’t as if it was going to be very swift otherwise. The Libyan war seems likely to drag on one way or another, but a halt in fighting during Ramadan may prolong it even more. The war on the ground might conceivably pause during August, which does not leave much time for NATO before it reaches its next deadline.

What complicates the situation is the position of the Italian government. Coughlin explains:

Mr Berlusconi’s comments are highly significant, as Nato is relying heavily on Italy’s cooperation to maintain its air operations against Libya. Nato’s operational headquarters is in Naples, while most of the combat missions are flown from air bases in southern Italy. Italian officials have already indicated that they do not want a further 90-day extension of Nato’s deadline for military operations, which is due to expire in late September.

Italy has always been the weakest link right from the beginning. Italy didn’t want to intervene, as Berlusconi has since publicly confirmed, its coalition government has been fragmenting because of the war, and it was very slow in bringing its air force into action once it grudgingly agreed to participate. The war was “handed off” to NATO partly to provide the Italian government cover to allow the use of Italian bases, and that lasts only as long as the war remains under NATO auspices.

Coughlin’s prediction of partition is probably wrong. It seems clear that the main intervening governments aren’t going to accept a settlement short of their regime change goals, and Britain and France in particular have committed too much to the intervention to stop short now. If the war continues after September 27, we can assume that Britain, France, and the U.S. will then press on without the fiction that the war had something to do with the alliance.

Update: The French government isn’t as stubborn as I thought. The Daily Mail reports that France wants to stop the war and negotiate with Gaddafi:

Military action in Libya must end and Colonel Gaddafi be welcomed around the negotiating table, the French sensationally claimed today.

Continual bombing of the country is not working, and diplomacy is the only solution – even if Gaddafi retains limited power – according to French defence minister Gerard Longuet.

In an apparent U-turn in policy, Mr Longuet said Gaddafi could remain in Libya ‘in another room of the palace, with another title.’

Second Update: The French Foreign Ministry has since contradicted Longuet’s statement:

However Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said on Monday that the NATO-led alliance still needed to keep up its military pressure on Gaddafi’s army and reiterated that Gaddafi’s standing down is a necessary condition for an end to the conflict.