Dan McCarthy thinks Huntsman will pass Paul and take second place tonight:

First, Paul seemed to have a hard time winning over last-minute deciders in Iowa, and the polling so far in New Hampshire suggests that Huntsman is getting more of them than Paul. The youthfulness of Paul’s core support is one of the strengths of his campaign, but it’s also a weakness in that young voters aren’t always disciplined enough to show up and vote. A third factor to consider are reports that Paul’s Granite State effort has again taken on a Woodstockian flavor, as it did in 2008.

That is possible, but I have been seeing some other reports this evening that suggest that Paul will hold off the Utahn’s challenge. Robert Costa reported a little while ago on the voting in Derry:

By her count, most voters appear to be supporting either Mitt Romney or Ron Paul, and the strong support for both contenders is reflected outside, where Paul and Romney supporters line the pavement, toting colorful signs and debating as they shiver. And for the two hours I spent alongside them, chatting with folks, volunteers for Jon Huntsman, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Santorum were nonexistent.

At this late hour, such things matter, since Derry is a must-watch town in one of New Hampshire’s key GOP counties, Rockingham, in the southern part of the state.

Costa went on to describe some of the reaction to Huntsman:

And don’t expect Huntsman to carry Derry. The buzz around the former Utah governor is “strange,” says Jim Foley, a pharmaceutical executive. “He’s an odd duck. He kept telling us he’d run a New Hampshire campaign, and his paid staff here is from the state, but he hasn’t connected with local Republicans, he hasn’t reached out to the right people. That ‘trust’ thing he always talks about? I’m not sure that is resonating. I don’t see a surprise.”

After the New Hampshire let-down four years ago and the more recent Iowa result, it’s understandable to set lower expectations for how Paul will do tonight, but tonight could finally be when Paul’s hoped-for breakthrough occurs.

Update: Nate Silver notes the higher-than-expected independent turnout, which helps both Paul and Huntsman:

Although early exit poll data is not always reliable, so far the results look good for Mr. Paul and Mr. Huntsman. Nearly half of voters describe themselves as independents in the exit polls, up considerably from 37 percent in 2008. Most pollsters had assumed independent turnout would be in the low 40’s, so this might be an early sign that the pollsters have underestimated the upside potential for Mr. Paul and Mr. Huntsman.

Elsewhere, I saw a report on exit polling that showed Paul virtually tied with Romney among independents, and Huntsman was a close third.