One of the last remaining pro-Rubio arguments is that he will prevail once there is a head-to-head match-up between him and Trump. The latest YouGov survey offers the strongest evidence yet that this is simply more wishful thinking by the candidate and his supporters. In a hypothetical Trump-Rubio race, 57% of Republicans choose Trump and 43% pick Rubio. Among self-identified conservatives, the numbers are similar: 55% for Trump to 45% for Rubio. Cruz also loses in a two-man race, and by roughly the same margin (58-42%). Given the choice between the favorite of party leaders and donors and the man loathed by almost all of them, most Republicans prefer the latter. Trump isn’t the one with the lower ceiling of support. It appears that the conventional candidates are the ones that have more limited appeal.

According to this survey, slightly more Republicans report that they would be satisfied with or enthusiastic for a Trump nomination than say the same for Rubio. If we believe these results, 43% of Republicans say they would feel enthusiastic about the prospect of a Trump nomination compared to just 27% that say the same about Rubio. Not only does Trump have more support, but his support appears to be significantly more intense. On the other side, 36% would be dissatisfied or upset with a Rubio nomination, and just 32% say the same about a Trump nomination. As we all know very well from the vocal protests of pundits and political operatives, there certainly is a bloc of Republicans that would be very unhappy with Trump as the nominee, but there is a bloc of Republicans just as large that would be just as unhappy with Rubio at the top of the ticket.