What Goes Up…

So in the last month Obama has actually lost ground in Colorado, which is one of the states that he needs to flip to be able to win without Ohio.  Third party support is impressively high at 8%, and 7% are undecided.  50% believe Obama to be too inexperienced, and his favs have dropped to just 50%.  The good news for him is that he has a strong lead among independents (14% of independents prefer a third party candidate) and he does get 77% among Democrats, but the inexperience question reveals some dangers for him: 25% of Democrats think he is too inexperienced, as do 41% of independents.  If those who take this view and those who aren’t sure either way swing to McCain, Colorado slips out of reach.

Rasmussen also shows Obama still trailing in Florida and basically tied in Ohio.  Someone’s model of likely voters–Rasmussen or Quinnipiac’s–is badly off.